Independence

Buckingham Palace asks Downing Street to seek expert advice

2011-05-29T05:50:00.000+01:00

You would have thought that HMG might be 'up to speed' on the topic of the Yookay constitution already. But HM clearly lacks faith in the knowledge level of her G:

'Queen’s fear of UK break-up'
- The Queen has expressed concern that she might be the last monarch of the UK and has asked Downing Street to keep her informed

The Queen has signalled in a private meeting with David Cameron her concern at the prospect of the break-up of the United Kingdom.

The monarch met the prime minister at Buckingham Palace after the Scottish National party’s victory in the Holyrood elections this month to discuss the potential implications for the monarchy.

It is understood that palace officials asked Downing Street to bring in a constitutional expert to advise on the process of staging a referendum on Scottish independence and the dismantling of the union in the event of a yes vote.

The Queen’s decision to raise the issue with Cameron so soon after the SNP’s surprise victory on May 5 suggests the palace is concerned about the ramifications. Although the Queen has been careful not to express a personal opinion, she is said to be keen to be kept informed about the issues, including the prospect that she could become the last queen of the country formed by the union of Scotland and England in 1707.

A senior Buckingham Palace source confirmed the discussion with Cameron had taken place and said the Queen was being kept briefed. “Regardless of Her Majesty’s personal views, it is the job of her private secretary to take these issues seriously and to investigate them and that’s precisely what is going on,” he said.

http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/National/article637229.ece

Also worth a look: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/theroyalfamily/8521736/How-the-Queen-will-help-see-off-Scottish-independence.html

Other stories that catch my eye this morning:

- Terrific news: 'Scottish government moves against UK Supreme Court'

- More terrific news: 'Former army chief says Cameron should call Salmond's bluff on independence'

- Even more terrific news: 'New Disney movie set in Highlands may boost Scots tourism by millions'

SLAB leader race - Macintosh goes solo FAV

2011-05-25T16:36:00.000+01:00

Stan James have just shortened their Ken Macintosh price, thus moving him from Joint-favourite to Favourite. Hard to believe that he started out at 8/1 a couple of weeks ago!

There is now no doubt whatsoever: Ed Miliband and their London HQ want Macintosh in the hot seat, leading the 'No' campaign, come the referendum. Baillie and the "Scottish wing" are not going to be happy bunnies.

And I wonder if Cathy Jamieson now regrets taking the rat run to London?

New best bookies' prices - Next leader of Labour parliamentary group

Ken Macintosh ~~2/1 (SJ)~~ 6/4 (SJ, WH)

Jackie Baillie 2/1 (Lad)
Johann Lamont 8/1 (PP, SJ)
John Park 8/1 (PP)

Sarah Boyack ~~8/1 (SJ)~~ 10/1 (SJ)

Malcolm Chisholm 12/1 (PP)

Lewis Macdonald ~~10/1 (SJ)~~ 12/1 (SJ)
Elaine Murray ~~12/1 (SJ)~~ 14/1 (SJ)
Jim Murphy 19/1 (Betfair)
Hugh Henry 20/1 (PP)
Michael McMahon 20/1 (SJ)
Richard Baker 25/1 (SJ)
Kezia Dugdale 33/1 (SJ)
Jenny Marra 50/1 (SJ)
Graeme Pearson 50/1 (SJ)
Gordon Brown 200/1 (PP)

Why the Union wil fail

2011-05-25T05:27:00.000+01:00

This is a relatively minor little story, tucked away on a BBC News subpage. It'll attract next to zero comment on the internet, and none at all in the dead-tree or broadcast media. However, when historians look back to the decline and fall of the British state, it is wee nuggets like this which really get to the heart of Unionist intransigence:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-13525912

In London, there are still far, far too many in The Establishment who still haven't got "it".

SLAB leader race - Macintosh shortens

2011-05-24T13:51:00.011+01:00

Hmmm... Newcastle Labour blogger/twitterer Henry G Manson advocated Ken Macintosh this morning - "Let it be known that Ken Macintosh it the preferred leadership candidate recognising that he’s the only figure who can plausibly take on Alec Salmond" - and lo and behold, the Macintosh price dives in just a few hours.

Benchmark bookie Ladbrokes even make him FAV, at 7/4.

Latest best prices - Next leader of Labour parliamentary group

Jackie Baillie 2/1 (Ladbrokes)
Ken Macintosh 2/1 (Stan James, ~~William Hill~~)
Sarah Boyack 8/1 (SJ)
Johann Lamont 8/1 (Paddy Power)
John Park 8/1 (PP)
Lewis Macdonald 10/1 (SJ)
Malcolm Chisholm 12/1 (PP)
Elaine Murray 12/1 (SJ)
Jim Murphy 19/1 (Betfair)
Hugh Henry 20/1 (PP)
Michael McMahon 20/1 (SJ)
Richard Baker 25/1 (SJ)
Kezia Dugdale 33/1 (SJ)
Jenny Marra 50/1 (SJ)
Graeme Pearson 50/1 (SJ)
Gordon Brown 200/1 (PP)

SLAB leader race - Macintosh lengthens

2011-05-22T17:00:00.001+01:00

It is starting to look like a shoo-in for the Dumbarton MSP Jackie Baillie, and the nominations aren't even in yet. Paddy Power have just cut their Baillie price yet again, forcing another lengthening of the Ken Macintosh (Eastwood) and Malcolm Chisholm (Edinburgh Northern & Leith) prices.

But you can still buy Baillie at longer than Evens with Ladbrokes and Hills:

New best bookies' prices - Next leader of Labour parliamentary group

Jackie Baillie 7/4 (Lad, WH)
Ken Macintosh ~~3/1~~ 4/1 (PP)
John Park 9/2 (PP)
Johann Lamont 7/1 (PP)
Sarah Boyack 8/1 (SJ)
Hugh Henry 10/1 (PP)
Lewis Macdonald 10/1 (SJ)

Malcolm Chisholm ~~9/1~~ 12/1 (PP)

Elaine Murray 12/1 (SJ)
Michael McMahon 20/1 (SJ)
Jim Murphy 20/1 (PP)
Richard Baker 25/1 (SJ)
Kezia Dugdale 33/1 (SJ)
Jenny Marra 50/1 (SJ)
Graeme Pearson 50/1 (SJ)
Gordon Brown 200/1 (PP)

(Note: Betfair now have a SLAB Leader market up too, but there is next to no liquidity, and dire value.)

Removal of Trident is a "red line issue"

2011-05-22T09:04:00.001+01:00

No surprises here:

'Independent Scotland will force out nuclear subs'
- Plans to relocate Britain's nuclear deterrent in the event of Scottish independence pose a logistical headache for the Ministry of Defence

... This month’s Holyrood election, which gave the Scottish National Party (SNP) an unexpected overall majority with the power to hold an independence referendum, poses a logistical headache for the Ministry of Defence.

It has been planning to place Britain’s entire fleet of submarines at the Faslane base by 2017, by which time Scotland may have voted for secession.

... a source close to Salmond said: “We regard the removal of Trident as a red line issue and would see it as something that would happen very quickly. It has to be gone from Scotland.”

Angus Robertson, the SNP defence spokesman, said public opinion and most politicians north of the border are opposed to Trident and that continuing to base it in Scotland is making “the most eloquent case for independence”.

... An MoD source said that it remained intent on keeping the nuclear deterrent at Faslane, which is considered “a unique base for submarine activity”.

http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/Politics/article631955.ece

So, the MoD are "intent on keeping the nuclear deterrent at Faslane" are they? How are they going to do that when the Scottish nation votes for self-determination? Frigates up the Forth at dawn? Guffaw. England is not, and will not be, a tin pot dicatatorship, so the MoD can stop acting as if it is one.

I wonder if anyone fancies polling public opinion in the residential areas around HMNB Devonport. Let's see how they fancy becoming one of the biggest targets in Europe.

Personally, I think that they ought to relocate the Vanguard subs n silos to the Medway. After all, that is approximately the same distance from central London as Faslane is from central Glasgow. I'm sure Londoners will be just as tolerant as Glaswegians have been.

The 'No' campaign will not be led from London or by the Tories

2011-05-21T08:06:00.003+01:00

Well duh!

If the 'No' campaign isn't led by Scottish Labour then it has no chance. And, depending on who the new SLAB leader is and how much autonomy they manage to gain from their London HQ, if the 'No' campaign is led by Scottish Labour then it has no chance.

Better stock up on popcorn, cos this is going to be fun. If the Calman cock-up is anything to go by, the 3 Unionist parties will put up a laughably weak "last bastion" (copyright: G Broon).

... Mr Duncan Smith, while insisting that the Conservatives are not finished in Scotland, was adamant the No to independence campaign would neither be led from London, nor by the Tories.

“No, it wouldn’t be. The Government position is in favour of the Union but the Labour Party is alongside that, the Liberals are alongside that. In Scotland, there are many groups in favour of the Union, so it’s a coalition of the willing. It’s not going to be led by the Prime Minister.”

He said that “people of good intent, politicians, businessmen, people from the arts, who really care about these things now need to step up to the mark and say this is no longer a vague threat, this is a serious threat”.

... He added: “You saw what happened to independent Ireland when the economic winds changed. It was UK taxpayers who helped bail out two Scottish banks that would have absolutely bust the Scottish economy as they did and are doing in Ireland.

“It’s because we have this greater capacity that nobody in England complains. There was not one whisper from anybody in England. That’s because everybody without even thinking about it said, of course, we should bail out a Scots bank because they are part of the Union.”

http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/politics/ids-challenge-to-salmond-on-referendum-1.1102736

IDS clearly doesn't read any blogs if he thinks that "there was not one whisper from anybody in England" about the RBS bailout. I've seen hundreds of abusive blog comments, and I am not that assiduous a reader of blogs these days.

And when will Unionist politicians start to realise that slagging off Ireland and Iceland is not doing their cause any favours?

UPDATE - Press silence

Not a peep from the "Scottish" press today about that astonishing by-election victory in Abereen yesterday. The only exception being The Scotsman, who managed - ta da - three sentences!

Thank goodness that nearly everyone has migrated to the internet for their news.

Money keeps going on LAB in Inverclyde

2011-05-20T16:57:00.000+01:00

Stan James have just cut their Labour price again, to 2/7 (from 1/3).

Current best prices for the Inverclyde by-election are now:

Lab 2/7 (SJ, VC, WH)
SNP 3/1 (PP)
Con 100/1 (WH)
LD 150/1 (WH)

SNP GAIN from Lib Dems in key Aberdeen by-election

2011-05-20T12:07:00.010+01:00

What a stunning victory. The defending Lib Dems plummeted to 3rd place on 1st preferences, only just ahead of the Tories:

'SNP's Neil MacGregor secures Aberdeen by-election win'

... Mr MacGregor secured 2,090 first preference votes, ahead of Labour's Graeme Lawrence with 941.

... The front two in the polls were were followed by Lib Dem Kristian Chapman with 446, Ross Thomson (Scottish Conservative) with 352, Independent Angela Joss with 150, and Green Rhonda Reekie with 88.

SNP 51.5% (+15.3)
Lab 23.1% (+1.8)
LD 11.0% (-15.2)
Con 8.7% (+0.4)
Ind 3.7% (+1.3)
Grn 2.2% (+0.2)

This makes the SNP the largest party in the coalition in the city, see:

- 'By-election result could herald major shake-up in leadership at city council'

Money going on LAB in Inverclyde?

2011-05-19T11:38:00.000+01:00

Stan James had the longest LAB HOLD price for the Inverclyde by-election (creating a tiny ARB in fact yesterday). They have just cut it, but still remain the best deal for LAB-backers.

Current best prices - Inverclyde by-election

Lab 1/3 (from 4/11) (SJ)
SNP 3/1 (PP)
Con 100/1 (WH)
LD 150/1 (WH)

Baillie goes odds-on at Paddy Power

2011-05-19T08:13:00.000+01:00

Paddy Power have just slashed their price on a Jackie Baillie victory in the Labour Group leadership election, to 4/6 (from EVS). Concurrently, they have lengthened their prices on other key contenders, making PP pretty competitive if you fancy backing a "Stop Baillie" candidate. But the problem is: who is the "Stop Baillie" candidate going to be?

This makes Baillie the only MSP to have been odds-on with any bookie since prices were first published, just after the general election.

However, Ladbrokes and Hills still have longer than EVS odds on the Dumbarton MSP coming out on top.

Current best prices - Next leader of Labour parliamentary group

Jackie Baillie 7/4 (Ladbrokes, William Hill)
Ken Macintosh 3/1 (Paddy Power)
John Park 9/2 (PP)
Johann Lamont 7/1 (PP)
Sarah Boyack 8/1 (Stan James)
Malcolm Chisholm 9/1 (PP)
Hugh Henry 10/1 (PP)
Lewis Macdonald 10/1 (SJ)
Elaine Murray 12/1 (SJ)
Michael McMahon 20/1 (SJ)
Jim Murphy 20/1 (PP)
Richard Baker 25/1 (SJ)
Kezia Dugdale 33/1 (SJ)
Jenny Marra 50/1 (SJ)
Graeme Pearson 50/1 (SJ)
Gordon Brown 200/1 (PP)

Wow!

2011-05-19T04:11:00.000+01:00

I'm speechless. I just don't know what to say, except this: if you want to increase your understanding of modern Scottish politics, you MUST read this (long) article in its entirety. It is by a member of the Labour Party's Scottish Executive Committee:

http://www.betternation.org/2011/05/scottish-labour-a-view-before-the-review/

Be in no doubt: the "Scottish" Labour Party is now in full-scale civil war. The views expressed by Jamie Glackin simply cannot co-exist in a party which contains dinosaurs who think that the watered down 'Calman-Lite' proposals in the new Scotland Act are a step too far.

Explosion, or implosion?

2nd Renfrewshire Lib Dem councillor defects to SNP

2011-05-19T03:41:00.000+01:00

'Councillor Marie McGurk defects to SNP'

Another councillor has defected from the Lib Dems to the SNP, the Paisley Daily Express can reveal.

Marie McGurk... last night confirmed her shock decision to change allegiance.

The Paisley South councillor follows her former Lib Dem colleague Mike Dillon, who revealed last week that he was switching sides to the SNP.

... Councillor McGurk’s defection means the SNP now has 18 councillors, with two Lib Dems left as part of the ruling coalition.

Labour has 19 councillors and there is one Conservative member.

Renfrewshire Council remains an SNP/LibDem coalition.

LAB HOLD shortens in Inverclyde

2011-05-18T13:32:00.010+01:00

~~Paddy Power remain the only bookie~~ so far to publish prices on the Inverclyde by-election. They have just shortened their Labour price, to 1/5 from 1/3:

*** update *** William Hill now have Inverclyde prices up too.

*** update 2 *** Victor Chandler now have Inverclyde prices up too.

*** update 3 *** Stan James now have Inverclyde prices up too. Bookies best prices are now:

Lab ~~1/5 (from 1/3) (PP)~~ ~~2/7 (VC, WH)~~ 4/11 (SJ)
SNP 3/1 (from 2/1) (PP)
Con ~~40/1 (n/c) (PP)~~ 100/1 (WH)
LD ~~66/1 (n/c) (PP)~~ 150/1 (WH)

Initial Inverclyde post with details of previous results: here.

UPDATE - SLAB leader prices

Stan James have just become the first bookie to price up both Sarah Boyack and Lewis Macdonald. Both are long, at 10/1, which is surprising in Boyack's case, as she is one of the few competent and likeable Labour MSPs left. Concurrently, Stan James shortened their Jackie Baillie price to 6/4 (from 7/4), but you can still get 7/4 on the Favourite Baillie at both Ladbrokes and Hills.

So, will it be Salmond vs Baillie/Fraser/Rennie ?

2011-05-17T12:50:00.006+01:00

We know who is going to lead the 'Yes' campaign during the Independence Referendum, but who on earth is going to lead the 'No' campaign? Not David Cameron anyway.

We now know one of the 3 leaders today, but what about the other two? The most important, of course, by a Scots mile, is the next SLAB leader. Baillie is the current FAV, but the race looks quite open. Current best prices:

Next leader of Labour parliamentary group
Jackie Baillie 7/4 (Lad, SJ, WH)
Ken Macintosh 5/2 (PP, WH)
John Park ~~5/1 (SJ)~~ *** update *** 4/1 (WH)
Hugh Henry 6/1 (PP)
Johann Lamont 6/1 (PP, SJ, WH)
Malcolm Chisholm 8/1 (SJ)
Elaine Murray 12/1 (SJ)
Michael McMahon 20/1 (SJ)
Jim Murphy 20/1 (PP)
Richard Baker 25/1 (SJ)
Kezia Dugdale 33/1 (SJ)
Jenny Marra 50/1 (SJ)
Graeme Pearson 50/1 (SJ)
Gordon Brown 200/1 (PP)

Next Tory Leader (Stan James)
Murdo Fraser 7/4
Jackson Carlaw 9/4
John Lamont 9/4
Ruth Davidson 10/1

On to the next battle: council elections 2012

2011-05-17T11:28:00.000+01:00

The self-inflicted damage SLAB did to themselves by allowing their Lib Dem lapdogs to push through STV voting for local government elections seriously weakened their party in 2007. Can we drive the stake further into the vampire chest in 2012? Probably:

'All hands are needed on deck or else Scottish Labour could sink without a trace'

... They got only 15 of 73 first-past-the-post seats, less than half their previous total, and, as someone keeps reminding me, Dumbarton is now Labour’s most northerly constituency. Glasgow, Edinburgh, Aberdeen, Dundee, Fife, Lanarkshire, the Lothians, the Highlands — the list is endless — are now all SNP strongholds.

But worse is bound to come. Next year sees the elections for Scotland’s 32 local councils and here again we can expect significant SNP gains.

Labour’s stranglehold on this area of government was shattered four years ago, thanks to the introduction of the STV version of proportional representation, to the extent that only Glasgow and North Lanarkshire councils are now wholly Labour-run.

The diminution of this grassroots base was certainly one of the reasons – albeit a minor one – for Labour’s heavy defeat two weeks ago, but this serious lack of support at council level will also make it harder for the party to stage an effective fightback during the next five years that Alex Salmond reigns supreme.

Speaking of local government, there is an important by-election in Aberdeen on Thursday (Dyce / Buckstone / Danestone). If the SNP can gain the seat from the defending Lib Dems, we become the largest party in the current LibDem/SNP coalition running the city. Do we then get to provide the council leader and the Lord Provost?

First preferences in 2007 were [* denotes the 4 elected councillors]:

*Mark McDonald (SNP) 2,620
*Barney Crockett (Lab) 1,801
*Ron Clark (LD) 1534
Avril MacKenzie (Con) 603
*George Penny (LD) 360
Rhonda Reekie (Grn) 147
Angela Dunn (Ind) 116
Dennis Grattan (Ind) 57

... The SNP would probably have won two seats here in 2007 if they had stood two candidates.

http://www.vote-2007.co.uk/index.php?topic=5830.0

Note: Mark McDonald has just been elected as a list MSP for the North East (an astounding feat, when you realise that the SNP won 100% of the FPTP seats in the region). This means that this ward will have yet another by-election soon.

Labour civil war - Part MMMDCLXXXII

2011-05-17T07:32:00.000+01:00

Of course, this has nothing whatsoever to do with Mr Harris' breek filling:

Result - Glasgow Cathcart - Scottish GE 2011

1. SNP 11,918 (45.5%)
2. Lab 10,326 (39.4%)
3. Con 2,410 (9.2%)
4. LD 1,118 (4.3%)
5. Ind 450 (1.7%)

- "... Mr Harris said that abolishing the electoral college in Scotland would bring Labour into line with other main party and give members more influence."

Nope. Labour will never be "in line" with the "other main party", because the "other main party" (great euphemism Angus!) is a Scottish party, whereas the Labour Party is a British party. Until that changes, they are screwed.

Labour odds-on FAV to Hold Inverclyde

2011-05-16T19:51:00.003+01:00

Paddy Power have just become the first bookie to publish prices on the Inverclyde by-election. They are clearly confident that it will be a LAB HOLD:

Paddy Power - Inverclyde By Election
- Applies to the party of the winning candidate of the upcoming by election for Inverclyde (Westminster). Bets void should no by election take place before the next general election. Others on request.

Lab 1/3
SNP 2/1
Con 40/1
LD 66/1

Result of last UK GE 2010 - Inverclyde
Lab 20,933 (56.0%)
SNP 6,577 (17.5%)
LD 5,007 (13.3%)
Con 4,502 (12.0%)
UKIP 433 (1.2%)

The Westminster seat contains all of the Holyrood Greenock & Inverclyde (Lab) seat, plus part of the Renfrewshire North & West (SNP) seat:

Result of last Scottish GE 2011 - Greenock & Inverclyde
Lab 12,387 (43.9%)
SNP 11,876 (42.1%)
Con 2,011 (7.1%)
LD 1,934 (6.9%)

Result of last Scottish GE 2011 - Renfrewshire North & West
SNP 11,510 (41.9%)
Lab 9,946 (36.2%)
Con 5,489 (20.0%)
LD 550 (2.0%)

Murdo Fraser is early FAV

2011-05-16T16:15:00.000+01:00

Stan James are the first bookie to publish prices on Annabel Goldie's successor:

Next Scottish Conservative Leader
- Who will succeed Annabel Goldie as leader of the Scottish Conservative Party? Others On Request

Murdo Fraser 7/4
John Lamont 9/4
Jackson Carlaw 9/4
Ruth Davidson 10/1

Tom Harris MP will only vote in the members' section

2011-05-16T14:41:00.006+01:00

http://www.tomharris.org.uk/Tom_Harris_MP/News/Entries/2011/5/16_HARRIS_TO_ABSTAIN_IN_LEADERSHIP_VOTE.html

For details of how the electoral college AV voting system works, see the Wikipedia article.

Stan James have just shortened their Jackie Baillie price, from 15/8 to 7/4. Latest best bookies' prices:

Next leader of Labour parliamentary group
Jackie Baillie 7/4 (Lad, SJ, WH)
Ken Macintosh 5/2 (PP, WH)
John Park 5/1 (SJ)
Hugh Henry 6/1 (PP)
Johann Lamont 6/1 (PP, SJ, WH)
Malcolm Chisholm 8/1 (SJ)
Elaine Murray 12/1 (SJ)
Michael McMahon 20/1 (SJ)
Jim Murphy 20/1 (PP)
Richard Baker 25/1 (SJ)
Kezia Dugdale 33/1 (SJ)
Jenny Marra 50/1 (SJ)
Graeme Pearson 50/1 (SJ)
Gordon Brown 200/1 (PP)

Jim Murphy leads the charge of the lightweight brigade

2011-05-16T08:14:00.000+01:00

Skeletor goes transatalantic in his quest to snare SLAB by the goolies:

'Jim Murphy to ask Obama aides how to get Labour back on track'

... Jim Murphy will travel to the US capital within weeks for meetings with key people from Mr Obama’s campaign, with a view to importing some of their election strategies.

... will focus on how the Obama campaign succeeded in mobilising hundreds of thousands of community activists to promote their cause.

A senior Labour source said: “Obama’s people were at the forefront of e-campaigning and we need to look at their methods.”

... The Scottish Party was initially angered by the UK Leader Ed Miliband’s decision to appoint Mr Murphy without consulting them.

As a result of the backlash, the party was been forced to widen the membership of the review group to include trade union figures and grassroots members.

... A source close to the review said: ”There is a strong argument for making the new leader the leader in Scotland but that would make the case for MPs taking part. There is certainly an anomaly at the moment and the review will address it before the new leader is elected.”

Philomena Muggins, chairman of the committee, said: “This review will be bottom-up, gathering ideas, listening to suggestions and putting out a coherent plan for making Scottish Labour the party of all Scotland again.”

The party of "all Scotland"? They really don't have the faintest scoobie, do they. They are a British party from the tips of their tails to the top of their slithering forked tongues. In fact, it is that very Britishness which is their fundamental problem.

Send for the mongooses.

Labour's incessant back-biting continues unabated

2011-05-16T03:07:00.002+01:00

The entire Blogger system went haywire last week, and although now repaired, it was a nice excuse to do some real life things, like spend time with my family and take part in a 50 km cycle fun ride.

I've probably missed tons of stuff (I haven't opened my computer in days), but on my return, a couple of things caught my eye.

Actually, before I mention those, the last thing I meant to blog about when Blogger went nuts was this: it looks like the SNP victory has killed off UK Government plans to change the clocks.

Now for those wee eye-catchers:

'Revolt grows over Labour’s inquiry into Holyrood rout'

... Allies of Mr Miliband claim that it was never the intention to have three MPs heading the inquiry and that there had not been any change of heart. But senior figures in the party in Scotland say privately that they do not wholly accept this explanation.

One source said: “The whole thing was a cack-handed attempt to take the inquiry away from the party in Scotland and, although Sarah [Boyack] has now been appointed, people are absolutely furious about the way this has been handled by the leadership in London.”

Another said: “The absolute priority for the Scottish executive today is to ensure that any review that takes place genuinely involves all party members in Scotland and not just a small coterie. Any review that is seen as a UK-led one will have shot itself in the head.”

... Meanwhile, speculation that Mr Murphy might heed calls from party colleagues to become leader of the Scottish party looks wide of the mark.

Senior colleagues of the MP for East Renfrewshire say that his real interest lies in remaining at Westminster. “He is not interested in coming to Holyrood to take on Alex Salmond. He’s not interested in becoming First Minister,” said one. Others pointed out that it would look odd if the person heading the “root-and-branch” inquiry into the Scottish party’s abject performance last week then went on to become Scottish party leader after it had reported.

With no sign of any Labour MSP at Holyrood making moves to succeed Mr Gray, however, the option of having an MP as leader has not been ruled out entirely.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/scotland/article3019502.ece

... and...

'Who will take over the hot seats? The front-runners'

... The party with most to do is Labour, which used to have a heartland, but now barely has a pulse. Although its numerical losses look modest next to those of the LibDems, the election exposed it as wholly lacking in drive, purpose or direction.

... With so many departures, there are no stand-outs among the few candidates for leader: Ken Macintosh, Jackie Baillie, Sarah Boyack, Malcolm Chisholm and Lewis Macdonald, all former ministers.

Besides giving voters positive reasons to return to the fold, the new leader must also try to unite a party addicted to back-biting: MPs, MSPs and councillors bitch about each other constantly.

... At Labour’s Scottish executive yesterday, the anti-London mood was equally assertive.

Note: no bookie is yet quoting prices on either Sarah Boyack or on Lewis Macdonald.

Elaine Murray enters the race

2011-05-12T21:14:00.000+01:00

... and jumps straight into 6th place:

Best bookies' prices - Next leader of Labour parliamentary group

Jackie Baillie 15/8 (SJ)
Ken Macintosh 5/2 (PP, WH)
John Park 5/1 (SJ)
Hugh Henry 6/1 (PP)
Johann Lamont 6/1 (PP, SJ, WH)
Malcolm Chisholm 8/1 (SJ)
Elaine Murray 10/1 (SJ)
Michael McMahon 16/1 (Lad, SJ)
Richard Baker 20/1 (SJ, WH)
Jim Murphy 20/1 (PP)
Kezia Dugdale 25/1 (Lad, SJ, WH)
Jenny Marra 33/1 (SJ)
Graeme Pearson 33/1 (SJ)
Gordon Brown 200/1 (PP)

Lots of price movements today, eg: Macintosh has shortened from 8/1 to 5/2; while Henry has lengthened after losing the PO contest. Chisholm (by far the best candidate) longer too.

2 NEW MARKETS

2011-05-12T15:46:00.000+01:00

These have been put up by Stan James a few days ago, and I put one in the sidebar, but just for the record:

Referendum on Scottish Independence
- Will there be a referendum on Scottish Independence before the next Scottish General Election?

Yes 1/8
No 9/2

(Note: the terms of this market are different from William Hill's similar market: this mandate period is 5 years, not the standard 4 years, so the next Scottish GE is May 2016, not 2015.)

Alex Salmond Specials
- Will any of the following happen during Alex Salmond's five year term as First Minister?

To Be Photographed Wearing A Kilt Whilst First Minister 10/11
To Attend The Opening Hearts Game Of Next Season 7/2
To Own A Winner Of The Scottish Grand National 66/1
To Expand His Helicopter Fleet To Include Saltire Two 80/1
To Have A Biopic Made About Him 100/1
To Be Caught Smoking Illegally 100/1
To Have A Number One Record 250/1
To Be The Next James Bond 500/1
To Be The Next Hearts Manager 500/1

The ConDems are revolting

2011-05-12T05:23:00.000+01:00

It's laugh a minute in the press today:

Michael Foryth writing in the Telegraph: 'Alex Salmond is no Braveheart – let's vote now'

The breek-filling continues at Clifton Terrace: 'Lib Dems plot to oust Scottish Secretary'

YouGov poll in the English Sun: 'We want Scots independence more than they do'

To paraphrase a famous line from Apocalypse Now: I love the sight of headless chickens in the morning.

UPDATE - Baillie lengthening

Stan James have just lengthened their Jackie Baillie price, to 2/1 (from 7/4), and shortened their Ken Macintosh price, to 5/1 (from 8/1). That 8/1 on Macintosh always looked too long, and I regret not getting a tenner on, cos it was bound to tighten.

I'm going to see if I can persuade Betfair and/or Smarkets to get a market going on this. Current best prices:

Next leader of Labour parliamentary group

Jackie Baillie 2/1 (SJ)
Hugh Henry 5/1 (PP)
Ken Macintosh 5/1 (SJ)
John Park 5/1 (SJ)
Malcolm Chisholm 7/1 (SJ, WH)
Johann Lamont 7/1 (SJ)
Michael McMahon 16/1 (Lad)
Richard Baker 20/1 (WH)
Jim Murphy 20/1 (PP)
Kezia Dugdale 25/1 (Lad, SJ, WH)
Jenny Marra 25/1 (SJ)
Graeme Pearson 33/1 (SJ)
Gordon Brown 200/1 (PP)

I am just salivating at the thought of Hugh Henry or Johann Lamont leading the 'No' campaign. Have all the SNP's Christmases come early?

Latest Westminster VI sub-sample

2011-05-11T08:04:00.006+01:00

Are you sitting comfortably in Clifton Terrace and John Smith House? Good. Let the torment commence...

Usual caveats apply:

Populus/Times
Westminster voting intention - Scotland
Sub-sample size: 134
Fieldwork: 6-8 May 2011
(+/- change from UK GE 2010)

SNP 49% (+29)
Lab 26% (-16)
Con 15% (-2)
LD 2% (-17)
UKIP 1% (n/c)
Grn 0 (-1)
BNP 0 (n/c)
oth 7%

http://populuslimited.com/uploads/download_pdf-080511-The-Times-The-Times-Poll---May-2011.pdf

UPDATE - McMahon enters the race?

Ladbrokes have just priced up Michael McMahon (Uddingston & Bellshill) in the Labour Group leadership election. An outsider at 16/1, it is the first time we have seen his name mentioned.

Has Shadsy got some inside info? I wouldn't put it past him.

And John Park (Mid Scotland & Fife) has shortened slightly over at William Hill (4/1 from 5/1).

Current best prices - Next leader of Labour parliamentary group

Jackie Baillie 7/4 (Lad, SJ, WH)
Hugh Henry 5/1 (PP)
John Park 5/1 (SJ)
Johann Lamont 6/1 (SJ, WH)
Malcolm Chisholm 7/1 (WH)
Ken Macintosh 8/1 (SJ)
Michael McMahon 16/1 (Lad)
Richard Baker 20/1 (WH)
Jim Murphy 20/1 (PP)
Kezia Dugdale 25/1 (Lad, SJ, WH)
Jenny Marra 25/1 (SJ)
Graeme Pearson 33/1 (SJ)
Gordon Brown 200/1 (PP)

NEW MARKET: Year Of Independence Referendum

2011-05-10T20:17:00.002+01:00

Paddy Power make 2014 FAV. Fairy nuff, but 15/8 is definitely too short for 2013, and IMHO 9/4 is too long for 2015.

2014 11/8
2013 15/8
2015 9/4
2016 5/1
2012 8/1
2011 16/1

UPDATE - 'Yes' to independence shortens

Stan James have just cut their price against a successful Independence Referendum, from 5/2 to 9/4 (the same price as William Hill).

Betting update - Next Presiding Officer

2011-05-10T16:24:00.004+01:00

Paddy Power have finally woken up. Looks like a shoo-in for Tricia. Good.

Next Presiding Officer (Paddy Power)

Tricia Marwick (SNP) 1/5
Christine Grahame (SNP) 3/1
Hugh Henry (Lab) 9/1
Duncan McNeil (Lab) 12/1
Annabel Goldie (Con) 14/1
Tavish Scott (LD) 16/1
Alex Fergusson (Con) 50/1
Sir Alex Ferguson (Lab) 250/1

UPDATE - Next Labour Leader

Stan James and William Hill have now joined Ladbrokes and Paddy Power.

Note: Stan James have a stand-out price on Ken Macintosh, if anyone is interested?

Next leader of Labour parliamentary group

Jackie Baillie 7/4 (Lad, SJ, WH)
Hugh Henry 5/1 (PP)
John Park 5/1 (SJ, WH)
Johann Lamont 6/1 (SJ, WH)
Malcolm Chisholm 7/1 (WH)
Ken Macintosh 8/1 (SJ)
Richard Baker 20/1 (WH)
Jim Murphy 20/1 (PP)
Kezia Dugdale 25/1 (Lad, SJ, WH)
Jenny Marra 25/1 (SJ)
Graeme Pearson 33/1 (SJ)
Gordon Brown 200/1 (PP)

Rest in peace David

2011-05-10T12:26:00.000+01:00

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-13347288

One of the few honourable ministers in Brown's government.

And a pathfinder in breaking the institutional anti-Catholicism of the British Establishment.

The ugly face of Unionism

2011-05-10T10:17:00.001+01:00

When oh when will they ever learn? They only know how to play one way: dirty.

'Salmond warned it may take two referendums'

David Mundell, the Tory Scotland Office Minister, refused yesterday to rule out a second referendum being held on independence after Alex Salmond held a vote on the same issue.

The Conservative Minister warned the SNP leader that the UK Government would not give him “a blank cheque” when it came to deciding the country’s constitutional future.

He said: “We will not obstruct a referendum by the Scottish government but there will be no blank cheques. We will have to discuss major issues like whether this can be done as a single vote or a double vote and who should be eligible to vote.”

... Alan Trench, research fellow at the School of Law at Edinburgh University, said: “A referendum Bill that purported to create a legal basis for independence directly would be beyond the powers of the Scottish Parliament.”

... Professor Robert Hazell, of UCL, has long held that a second referendum would have to be held before it could be established that independence was the “settled will” of the Scottish people.

“The first referendum, if passed, would give the Scottish government authority to demand independence, and compel the UK government to enter into negotiations.

“The second referendum would give the people of Scotland the opportunity to know the detailed terms of independence before making the final, momentous decision” he said.

... Yesterday, Alastair Campbell, Tony Blair’s former director of communications, called for the issue to be decided in a UK-wide vote. He said: “Given how significant the break-up of the UK would be, affecting England, Wales and Northern Ireland, as well as Scotland, there is a case for a UK-wide referendum on the issue.

“I am surprised this has not been raised yet by any of the pro-Union parties and MPs. I hope it will be as this debate moves forward.”

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/scotland/article3013779.ece

... David Mundell, the junior Scottish Office minister, has hardened his tone since the election and is the man to whom the Prime Minister should be listening for advice now, rather than the Lib Dem Scottish Secretary, Michael Moore, whose party looks dead in the water north of the border at present.

... let [David Cameron] put out feelers across the political spectrum with the aim of establishing a cross-party, but heavy hitting, group of men and women who are committed, to the very depths of their beings, to maintaining the United Kingdom as presently constituted. Their job would be to decide on the best strategy for winning a referendum on the border – whenever it’s held.

The main players would have to be Scots prepared to tackle Alex Salmond on his home turf. Some of them will be politicians, all of whom must be prepared to put petty differences behind them for the greater good. From Labour we should have John Reid – where’s he been, by the way – Alistair Darling, Douglas Alexander and – yes – Gordon Brown. I would certainly also have Tony Blair, others might not. From the Liberal Democrats, let’s have David Steel, Ming Campbell and, as point man, Charlie Kennedy. The Tories would certainly include Michael Forsyth and Malcom Rifkind.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/scottish-politics/8503107/Commentary-David-Cameron-must-get-a-grip-of-the-Union.html

Latest Westminster VI sub-sample

2011-05-10T08:32:00.000+01:00

I see that the full data has now been published from today's YouGov/News International poll. Here is the Scottish split. IIRC it is the first time the SNP has been ahead in a YouGov Westminster VI sub-sample since 2008:

Westminster VI – Scotland
(+/- change from UK GE 2010)

SNP 37% (+17)
Lab 34% (-8)
Con 16% (-1)
LD 8% (-11)
Grn 2% (+1)
UKIP 2% (+1)
BNP 0 (n/c)
oth 1%

Net UK Government approval:

Rest of South -10
Midlands/Wales -14
London -17
Scotland -35
North -39

Great Britain -21

http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/yg-archives-pol-sun-results-090511.pdf

Is it between Marwick and Grahame?

2011-05-10T07:20:00.006+01:00

SNP 'will appoint one of its own as Presiding Officer'

... Tricia Marwick told The Scotsman that she had been asked by a "sizeable" part of the SNP at Holyrood to stand in tomorrow's election for the Presiding Officer.

... The decision by Mid Fife and Glenrothes MSP Ms Marwick to contest the election puts her up against SNP colleague Christine Grahame and two confirmed candidates from Labour, Hugh Henry and Duncan McNeil.

But the SNP's majority and Ms Marwick's standing within the party as a senior MSP and a member of Holyrood's corporate body in the parliament make her the frontrunner in the ballot being held tomorrow.

... Mr Scott, when asked whether he expected an SNP candidate to win the secret ballot of MSPs, went on to say that "I absolutely expect that".

So, how on earth do Paddy Power manage to price up a market that has a non-MSP as odds-on FAV, and misses out 3 of the candidates (Grahame, McNeil and Marwick)? One suspects that they simply put up some of these markets as a cheap promo, cos they clearly haven't got a clue about Scottish politics.

If Paddy Power want to win back some of the cash they lost to SNP-backers at the general election, they'll have to do a lot better than this:

Next Presiding Officer (Paddy Power)
Ross Finnie (LD) 8/11
Patricia Ferguson (Lab) 9/4
Hugh Henry (Lab) 11/4
Tavish Scott (LD) 5/1
Annabel Goldie (Con) 16/1
Alex Fergusson (Con) 50/1
Sir Alex Ferguson (Lab) 250/1

UPDATE - ARB ALERT: Independence Referendum Result betting

Stan James have now joined Paddy Power and William Hill with prices on the outcome of the referendum. They are currently offering the best price on 'Yes', at 5/2, which actually creates a reasonable ARB with Paddy Power's 'No' at 4/7.

Note: Ladbrokes had briefly published a 'Yes' price of 5/2 on 7 May, then almost immediately withdrew it. Ladbrokes had NOT published a 'No' price.

NEW MARKET: Next Presiding Officer

2011-05-09T19:42:00.005+01:00

Somebody really ought to tell Paddy Power that Ross Finnie is no longer an MSP:

Next Presiding Officer (Paddy Power)
Ross Finnie (LD) 8/11
Patricia Ferguson (Lab) 9/4
Hugh Henry (Lab) 11/4
(Christine Grahame (SNP) 3/1)*
Tavish Scott (LD) 5/1
Annabel Goldie (Con) 20/1
Alex Fergusson (Con) 50/1
Sir Alex Ferguson (Lab) 250/1

This market was launched this afternoon, and the Ferguson, Henry and Scott prices have already shortened.

Note*: Christine Grahame has announced her candidature (the only one to do so publicly thus far), so I contacted PP. They offered me 3/1, but her name has not appeared on their list at the website.

Note 2: the PO will be elected on Wednesday, so if you win your bet, you see your money back quickly.

In other betting news: the Willie Rennie price has shortened to 1/6 (from 1/4), so it is beginning to look like a shoo-in. I wonder if anyone will even bother opposing him to cause an election?

Best prices just now:

Next SLD Leader (Paddy Power)
Willie Rennie 1/6
Liam McArthur 6/1
Jo Swinson 8/1
Alison McInnes 10/1
George Lyon 12/1
Michael Moore 12/1
Jim Hume 16/1
Mike Pringle 20/1
Mike Rumbles 20/1
Ross Finnie 50/1

In the SLAB leadership race, there have been lots of price changes today, so clearly a fair bit of cash is going on already, and this race is gonna run til September/October.

The oddest feature of the bookies' prices is that Jim Murphy keeps shortening. Are they really going to try to parachute him in at a forced by-election somewhere? Seems crazy, but they are getting desperate now.

Best prices just now:

Next leader of Labour parliamentary group
Jackie Baillie 7/4 (Lad)
Ken Macintosh 9/4 (Lad)
John Park 3/1 (PP)
Malcolm Chisholm 5/1 (Lad, PP)
Hugh Henry 5/1 (PP)
Johann Lamont 5/1 (Lad)
Richard Baker 12/1 (Lad)
Kezia Dugdale 25/1 (Lad)
Jim Murphy 20/1 (PP)
Gordon Brown 200/1 (PP)

Thank you

2011-05-09T14:56:00.002+01:00

These past few days have been historic ones for our party and for our nation. Together, we have achieved something few thought possible - we have secured a majority in the Scottish Parliament.

In the run up to polling day I wrote to you asking for your help in the final few hours of the campaign. And you responded as never before. In so many ways, big and small, the party came together and we delivered a final push to victory the likes of which has never been seen before in Scottish politics.

I would like to thank you for your efforts. I have no doubt that the victory we achieved on Thursday could not have happened without the hard-work and dedication, the donations and door-knocking, the sheer enthusiasm and support you showed.

When Scotland called, you answered and together we changed our nation for good and for ever.

The scale of our success on Thursday was without precedent and that places a special responsibility on us all. As the party entrusted with leadership by the people of Scotland we must now be sure to repay that trust.

Our commitment during the campaign was to make Scotland better. And as we move forward into this next five years of government be assured that we will act always in the interests of our nation; we will seek always to advance Scotland's cause.

We will work as never before to create and protect jobs, to grow our economy, generate new opportunities for young Scots, and make our nation a fairer and more socially just society. We will secure new responsibilities for our parliament and trust the people of Scotland to decide our nation's future in an independence referendum.

And as we take forward this ambitious programme in government I know that our ministerial team and our MSPs will have SNP members and activists with us every step of the way. And I believe with all my heart that together we will achieve all these things and more, that we will make Scotland better.

I hope you, like me, have enjoyed these past few days. But Thursday was not our winning post. Now is a time to pause and to celebrate and then, tomorrow, our journey continues.

Yours for Scotland,
Alex Salmond

It was a pleasure Alex.

Thursday was just a step on the journey. But what a step!

As an ordinary SNP member, I will continue to work for self-government for Scotland - that is, the restoration of Scottish national sovereignty - and the furtherance of all Scottish interests. I am here to serve these aims to the very best of my abilities.

And we thank you too Alex.

Yours for Scotland,
Stuart Dickson

Does the SNP landslide also help English and Welsh self-determination?

2011-05-09T12:52:00.000+01:00

Looks likely:

'SNP success will inspire campaigners for Welsh independence'

The revolution in Scottish politics will send regular tremors through the United Kingdom over the next five years and Wales will feel the full force of each shock-wave.

There are at least three immediate implications for the nation.

First, independence is on the agenda, and the future of the UK as we know it has been called into question... also gives time for people to become used to the idea that the different parts of the UK are linked by the principle of consent and not some impermeable constitutional cement.

It is inevitable that this will embolden supporters of Welsh independence and force Plaid Cymru to clearly articulate its own position.

There is also a good chance the debate will strengthen English nationalism...

The second main area that the triumph of the SNP will affect Wales is in the debate over finance.

... The third impact of a majority SNP government in Scotland is that Labour has suffered a cataclysmic defeat in a key heartland at a time when it is locked out of power in Westminster.

Betting update - Year of Independence and Labour Leadership

2011-05-09T08:41:00.002+01:00

In the 'Year of Independence' betting, Victor Chandler have been joined by Stan James. Latest best prices:

Year of Scottish independence
2014 or earlier 7/1 (SJ)
2015 6/1 (SJ)
2016 5/1 (SJ, VC)
2017 4/1 (SJ, VC)
2018 9/2 (SJ, VC)
2019 11/2 (SJ)
2020 or later 3/1 (VC)

And we have seen a bit of movement already on the Labour leadership prices. Jackie Baillie has lengthened a bit with the specualtion that Ken Macintosh will stand this time (he failed to get nominated in 2008).

Macintosh himself shoots straight in to the No.2 spot, and Hugh Henry lengthens following the specualtion that he wants to be Presiding Officer.

Rather oddly, money has been going on Jim Murphy. He has come in from 100/1 to 40/1. There has been much wild speculation that some MSP (eg. Gray in East Lothian) will resign, allowing Murphy (or eg. Douglas Alexander) to be "parachuted" in in a by-election, to then lead the MSP group. Personally, I'll believe it when I see it.

Note: this election is not taking place until the autumn (probably September).

Latest best prices:

Next leader of Labour parliamentary group
Jackie Baillie 9/4 (Lad)
Ken Macintosh 3/1 (Lad)
John Park 4/1 (Lad, PP)
Malcolm Chisholm 13/2 (PP)
Hugh Henry 8/1 (Lad)
Andy Kerr 8/1 (PP)
Johann Lamont 8/1 (Lad)
David Whitton 8/1 (PP)
Richard Baker 16/1 (PP)
Kezia Dugdale 25/1 (Lad)
Des McNulty 40/1 (PP)
Jim Murphy 40/1 (PP)
Karen Gillon 66/1 (PP)
Karen Whitefield 66/1 (PP)

The PM's first major mistake

2011-05-09T02:27:00.001+01:00

'Cameron blocks SNP tax power bid'

David Cameron is facing his first major clash with Alex Salmond after his Government ruled out giving the Scottish Parliament control over corporation tax.

... last night UK Government sources made it plain that the Treasury does not believe such a concession is workable and is preparing to oppose it.

... The Treasury is presently engaged in a consultation on extending these powers to Northern Ireland...

A spokesman for Mr Salmond indicated that the First Minister would not accept this as the final word, saying: “Where there’s a will, there’s a way. The issue is delivering on Mr Cameron’s much-vaunted respect agenda for Scotland.”... He added: “The cross-party committee at Holyrood, which examined the Scotland Bill, said that if one part of the UK got this, it should be available to Scotland as well.”

The Treasury is already looking at giving Holyrood borrowing powers next year, a year earlier than had originally been mooted. A positive decision on this is expected shortly.

... Meanwhile Ed Miliband, Labour leader told The Andrew Marr Show on BBC One that his party in Scotland must set out an alternative vision to independence...

He made several major mistakes as Leader of the Opposition, but this is David Cameron's first major mistake as Prime Minister.

The consequences of this error are grave. As grave as Tony Blair's biggest mistake: conceding Scottish devolution when he knew in his heart of hearts that Donald Dewar's dream ought to have been kicked into the long grass in 1997. Parts of the Scottish Labour party would have had a fit, but the Union would not be in the perilous state it now finds itself.

Meanwhile, the SNP watch the British Establishment in London make unforced error after unforced error, both big and small, and just cannot believe our luck.

When the Union dies, the words "The Treasury" will hold a significant spot in the obituaries. Why on earth is devolved corporation tax "workable" in NI, but not "workable" in Scotland? Until the Treasury can answer that question (and, obviously, they cannot), Mr Cameron should override them.

Still, look on the bright side: Cameron is ten times more competent than Edward Miliband. But the problem is, the party leading the 'No' campaign in the Referendum will be Labour, not the Tories. Ouch!

See also:

- The Australian: 'Labour has begun investigating its electoral collapse Scotland in favour of the Scottish National Party'
- Belfast Telegraph: "Secretary of State for Scotland Michael Moore said he would not support the devolution of corporation tax, and did not believe devolving the Crown Estate was "the right way forward""

"Every seat that Labour’s Ed Miliband and Ed Balls visited during the campaign was won by the nationalists"

2011-05-08T08:59:00.000+01:00

Quelle surprise.

NEW MARKET: Next Scottish Lib Dem Leader

2011-05-08T05:51:00.003+01:00

Willie Rennie is the run away, odds-on FAV in the race so far.

Wot, no Danny Alexander?

Courtesy of Paddy Power:

Willie Rennie 1/4 (Mid & Fife list MSP; former MP, then Westminster SpAd)
Liam McArthur 6/1 (Orkney MSP; former Holyrood SpAd)
Jo Swinson 6/1 (Deputy Leader; East Dunbartonshire MP)
George Lyon 10/1 (MEP; former Deputy Minister for Finance, Public Service Reform and Parliamentary Business; former MSP)
Alison McInnes 10/1 (North East list MSP)
Michael Moore 10/1 (Secretary of State for Scotland; Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk MP)
Jim Hume 14/1 (South list MSP)
Mike Pringle 16/1 (former MSP)
Mike Rumbles 16/1 (former MSP; came 2nd behind Nicol Stephen in 2005 leadership election: came 3rd behind Tavish Scott and Ross Finnie in 2008 leadership election)
Ross Finnie 50/1 (former Minister for the Environment and Rural Development; former MSP; came 2nd behind Tavish Scott in 2008 leadership election)

Note: unlike the Scottish Labour Party Leader, candidates do not have to be MSPs. (In reality, there is no such job as "Scottish Labour Party Leader". The post is actually simply Leader of the Labour Party Group in the Scottish Parliament. So both Paddy Power and Ladbrokes have mis-named their markets.)

NEW MARKETS & ARB ALERT: Scottish independence referendum

2011-05-07T01:57:00.010+01:00

We have 2 new markets up and running already on the referendum:

Referendum on Independence of Scotland before May 2015? (William Hill)
Yes 1/3
No 9/4

Note: the new parliament has a FIVE YEAR term, until May 2016; not a standard 4 year term as stiplutated in the Scotland Act 1998. You can thank genius Nick Clegg for that one.

Bookies' best prices - Independence Referendum Result
Against independence (Fail/No) 4/7 (Paddy Power)
For independence (Pass/Yes) ~~9/4 (William Hill)~~ UPDATE: 5/2 (Ladbrokes)

Note: the above is an ARB opportunity. (approx. ~~5.9%~~ 8.4% guaranteed, BUT see Note 2 below)

Note 2: Ladbrokes use a qualifying wording: "Scotland to vote yes for full Independence before June 2015", whereas William Hill voids the bet if no Referendum is held before the end of 2015, while Paddy Power voids the bet if no referendum is held before "the end of the term beginning May 2011" (which is scheduled to be May 2016).

... and we have new 'Alex Salmond Specials' from Ladbrokes (note: beware of betting whenever a bookie only provides a price on ONE side of a bet! -> it can mean very poor value):

To wear his favourite multi-saltire tie at First Minister Swearing In 1/5
To appear in public in a kilt before 2015 EVS
To celebrate his SNP win with a curry before 11th May 4/1
To be at the first Hearts game of next season 4/1
To own a winner of the Scottish Grand National in his lifetime 50/1
To wear a kilt at First Minister Swearing In 66/1
To be the next James Bond 500/1

... and the latest best prices on Iain Gray's replacement (somebody really ought to tell Paddy Power that candidates must be an MSP):

Next Scottish Labour Party Leader
Jackie Baillie 2/1 (Lad)
Hugh Henry 4/1 (Lad)
John Park 4/1 (Lad, PP)
Malcolm Chisholm 13/2 (PP)
Andy Kerr 8/1 (PP)
Johann Lamont 8/1 (Lad)
David Whitton 8/1 (PP)
Richard Baker 16/1 (PP)
Kezia Dugdale 25/1 (Lad)
Des McNulty 40/1 (PP)
Karen Gillon 66/1 (PP)
Karen Whitefield 66/1 (PP)
Jim Murphy 100/1 (PP)

UPDATE

William Hill - Clegg To Resign in 2011?
Yes 2/1

NEW MARKET: Independence Referendum Result

2011-05-06T20:26:00.000+01:00

Paddy Power - Independence Referendum Result
- "Applies to the next referendum on Scottish independence.
Must include term independence and may involve qualifications.
Bets void if a referendum on Scottish Independence does not take place by the end of the term beginning May 2011."

Against independence (Fail) 4/7
For independence (Pass) 5/4

... and...

Ladbrokes - Next Scottish Labour Party Leader

Jackie Baillie 2/1
Hugh Henry 4/1
John Park 4/1
Malcolm Chisholm 6/1
Johann Lamont 8/1
Richard Baker 10/1
Kezia Dugdale 25/1

Dugdale in the Top 7? That in itself is a sign of just how profoundly tragic the Labour performance was yesterday.

I'm blogging at UK Polling Report

2011-05-06T03:24:00.000+01:00

If anyone wants me...

Constituency declarations begin at 2 am

2011-05-05T15:25:00.012+01:00

East Lothian, Inverclyde and Dumfries & Galloway will be the first out the starting gate.

The East Lothian result will give us an excellent pointer to the main SNP/Lab battle (Iain Gray ought to just about hold on, surely?) Greenock & Inverclyde ought to be safe Labour (but keep an eye on the majority). Both of the D&G seats are fascinating: Galloway & WD is too close to call between Con and SNP; while Dumfriesshire ought to be an easy Lab Gain from Con (if it is not, they are in big trouble).

Both Glasgow and Edinburgh, and a host of other places, are expected to declare approx 4 am, so we should really know how the final result will look by 5 am, unless it is super close.

East Lothian 02:00
Greenock & Inverclyde 02:00
Dumfriesshire 02:30
Galloway & West Dumfries 02:30
Clydesdale 02:45
Airdrie & Shotts 03:00
Argyll & Bute 03:00
Coatbridge & Chryston 03:00
Cumbernauld & Kilsyth 03:00
East Kilbride 03:00
Hamilton, Larkhall & Stonehouse 03:00
Motherwell & Wishaw 03:00
Orkney 03:00
Shetland 03:00
Uddingston & Bellshill 03:00
Rutherglen 03:30
Almond Valley 04:00
Dundee City East 04:00
Dundee City West 04:00
Edinburgh Central 04:00
Edinburgh Eastern 04:00
Edinburgh Northern & Leith 04:00
Edinburgh Pentlands 04:00
Edinburgh Southern 04:00
Edinburgh Western 04:00
Glasgow Anniesland 04:00
Glasgow Cathcart 04:00
Glasgow Kelvin 04:00
Glasgow Maryhill & Springburn 04:00
Glasgow Pollok 04:00
Glasgow Provan 04:00
Glasgow Shettleston 04:00
Glasgow Southside 04:00
Moray 04:00
Paisley 04:00
Renfrewshire North & West 04:00
Renfrewshire South 04:00
Strathkelvin & Bearsden 04:00
Central Scotland region 04:00
Aberdeenshire East 04:30
Eastwood 04:30
Linlithgow 04:30
Perthshire North 04:30
Perthshire South & Kinross-shire 04:30
Aberdeen Central 05:00
Aberdeen Donside 05:00
Aberdeen South & Kincardine North 05:00
Cunninghame North 05:00
Cunninghame South 05:00
Midlothian North & Musselburgh 05:00
Glasgow region 05:00
Aberdeenshire West 05:30
Banffshire & Buchan Coast 05:30
Angus North & Mearns 06:00
Angus South 06:00
Ayr 06:00
Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley 06:00
Falkirk East 06:00
Falkirk West 06:00
Kilmarnock & Irvine Valley 06:00
Lothian region 06:00
North East Scotland region 06:00
Clydebank & Milngavie 06:30
Dumbarton 06:30
Midlothian South, Tweeddale & Lauderdale 06:30
Ettrick, Roxburgh & Berwickshire 07:00
South Scotland region 07:00
West Scotland region 07:00
Na h-Eileanan an Iar 12:30
Stirling 12:30
Caithness, Sutherland & Ross 13:00
Inverness & Nairn 13:00
Skye, Lochaber & Badenoch 13:00
Clackmannanshire & Dunblane 14:00
Cowdenbeath 14:00
Dunfermline 14:00
Mid Fife & Glenrothes 14:00
North East Fife 14:00
Kirkcaldy 14:00
Highlands & Islands region 14:00
Mid Scotland & Fife region 14:30

Ladbrokes publish prices - Next Scottish Labour Party Leader

2011-05-05T09:37:00.001+01:00

Ladbrokes have now joined Paddy Power in publishing prices for the Next Scottish Labour Party Leader. Thus far, Ladbrokes prices are far better value (and seemingly far better informed!) than Paddy Power's.

Best prices so far:

Andy Kerr 2/1 (Lad)
David Whitton 5/2 (Lad)
Jackie Baillie 5/1 (Lad)
Hugh Henry 10/1 (Lad)
John Park 12/1 (Lad)
Alex Rowley 16/1 (Lad)
Johann Lamont 20/1 (Lad)
Des McNulty 40/1 (Lad)
Richard Baker 50/1 (Lad, PP)
Karen Gillon 50/1 (PP)
Karen Whitefield 66/1 (Lad)
Jim Murphy 80/1 (PP)
Gordon Brown 200/1 (PP)

Labour infighting begins early

2011-05-05T05:35:00.001+01:00

'Gray gets the blame as Labour faces defeat'

Recriminations were under way within Scottish Labour last night...

The backlash against Iain Gray and his closest aides began before today’s Holyrood election...

... While no senior Scottish Labour figure who spoke to The Times was willing to go public before the election with a call for Mr Gray to stand down in the immediate aftermath of a defeat, privately some made clear they believe that his resignation would become inevitable — especially as Labour was ahead of the SNP in the polls until a few weeks ago.

They described Mr Gray’s leadership as “anaemic and utterly culpable” and one party candidate said: “It is a measure of how shrunken the Labour Party in Scotland now is, that it thinks Iain Gray is capable of being leader.”

Some reserved their fury for John Park, the campaign co-ordinator, whom they described as “over-rated and out of his depth”, while others demanded “a root and branch review” of the party in Scotland.

The critics are furious at what they see as a shambolic Labour campaign which, they claim, had “no structure, positive message, tactical adroitness or real visibility”.

... One candidate said: “What the people who ran this campaign should consider is that because they were beaten at every turn by the Nationalists, good people might lose their seats and lots of people who put in a power of work in their constituencies have now been left totally disillusioned.

“We have to find someone to lead this party in Scotland more effectively but who that person is, no one knows. How has the party that created and delivered devolution become the party that cannot adapt to devolution?”

Others asked why senior Scottish figures in the party at Westminster, with a proven track record of campaigning, had been “shut out” of the Holyrood campaign.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/scotland/article3008450.ece

Where on earth were Anne McKechin, Douglas Alexander and Jim Murphy during this campaign? The 3 Shadow Cabinet members were totally invisible. Instead the intemperate Broon, Balls and Miliband were drafted in at the last second, and just made things worse.

FINAL POLL: YouGov say SNP only 3 points ahead

2011-05-04T16:38:00.007+01:00

3 points is Margin of Error stuff!

Have Paddy Power paid out too soon?

Remember, this is an AMS election, not an FPTP one.

YouGov
Scottish Parliament general election - voting intention
Sample size: 1,494
Fieldwork: 2 - 4 May 2011
(+/- change from YouGov/Scotland on Sunday ending 29 April 2011)

Constituency vote (FPTP)
SNP 42% (n/c)
Lab 35% (+1)
Con 11% (-1)
LD 8% (+1)

List vote (AMS)
SNP 35% (n/c)
Lab 32% (-1)
Con 13% (+1)
LD 7% (+1)
Grn 6% (-1)

http://today.yougov.co.uk/sites/today.yougov.co.uk/files/yg-archives-pol-yougov-scotlandwalessummary-040511.pdf

NEW MARKET: Next Scottish Labour Party Leader

2011-05-04T15:28:00.011+01:00

With Iain Gray perhaps about to lose his seat tomorrow (the SNP's David Berry is 10/3 to dislodge Gray), and no safety net on Labour's regional list, and with Paddy Power already paying out on SNP Most Seats, it looks like John Smith House will already be planning for yet another SLAB (ahem) "leader" (sic).

So, who is in line for the thankless job?

It is hard to miss the west coast dominance of this list. How about Park at 10/1 ?

Paddy Power - Next Scottish Labour Party Leader
- "Applies to the next permanently appointed leader of the Scottish Labour Party (Caretaker will not count)."

David Whitton 11/8 (Strathkelvin & Bearsden candidate)
Andy Kerr 6/4 (East Kilbride candidate)
Jackie Baillie 4/1 (Dumbarton candidate)
John Park 10/1 (list candidate only: Mid Scotland & Fife)
Johann Lamont 16/1 (Glasgow Pollock candidate)
Des McNulty 33/1 (Clydebank & Milngavie candidate)
Karen Gillon 50/1 (Clydesdale candidate)
Richard Baker 50/1 (list candidate only: North East Scotland)
Karen Whitefield 50/1 (Airdrie & Shotts candidate)
Jim Murphy 80/1 (East Renfrewshire MP, Shadow Secretary of State for Defence)
Gordon Brown 200/1 (Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath MP)

Note: neither Murphy nor Brown are even eligible, as Westminster MPs. It would require them to win a by-election so that they became an MSP and part of the Labour Parliamentary Group.

Note 2: Karen Gillon looks likely to lose the Clydesdale contest tomorrow.

SNP to win Edinburgh Western from 3rd place?

2011-05-04T13:01:00.000+01:00

Colin Keir has just gone odds-on FAV to Gain Edinburgh Western from the Lib Dems.

SNP 10/11 (VC, WH)
LD 5/4 (PP)
Lab 16/1 (VC)
Con 33/1 (WH)

Lib Dems in SIXTH PLACE on Lothian list

2011-05-04T12:10:00.001+01:00

Oh my goodness. Is the political map as we know it about to be completely re-drawn?

(note: figures re-percentaged to exclude DK)

Edinburgh Evening News Election Panel
Scottish Parliament general election
Lothian electoral region voting intention

Constituency vote (FPTP)

SNP 49%
Lab 29%
LD 14%
Con 8%

Regional vote (AMS)
(+/- change from 2007)

SNP 39% (+13)
Margo Macdonald 23% (+16)
Con 11% (-2)
Lab 10% (-16)
Grn 9% (+2)
LD 7% (-6)
oth 1%

(disclaimer: some psephologists may label this as a 'voodoo poll')

'Workers trained to spot forgeries'

Election staff have been sent on a forensic course so they can spot forged signatures on postal vote forms.

Nearly 61,000 people in the Capital have been sent postal ballots - almost one in five of voters. Under anti-fraud measures, the signature and date of birth of everyone voting by post must be checked with the same details supplied on their original application.

Scanning machines are used to match the signatures and doubtful ones are filtered out to be checked by staff.

Election returning officer Sue Bruce, who is also the city council's chief executive, said: "We have had forensic training on signature recognition. It doesn't make us experts, but it helps staff recognise common themes in signatures."

http://news.scotsman.com/news/Holyrood-election--40hour-fight.6762241.jp?articlepage=2

Paddy Power pays out on SNP Most Seats and Next FM Salmond

2011-05-04T11:25:00.004+01:00

~~... according to Twitter.~~

NOW CONFIRMED BY PADDY POWER CUSTOMER SERVICE.

(hat-tip: Denzil)

UPDATE

I'm beginning to think that John McTernan is actually an SNP 5th columnist within the heart of the Labour Party. If David Cameron follows his advice today, the Union will be finished sooner than we all think.

Have Labour lost their "feel" for the Scottish nation?

2011-05-04T06:57:00.006+01:00

If the Tories and Lib Dems really are taking votes off Labour at this late stage, then Gray’s “re-launch” last week had precisely the opposite effect of the explicitly stated goal: namely appealing to voters outwith Labour’s core vote.

http://politics.caledonianmercury.com/2011/04/25/iain-gray-relaunches-labour-campaign-in-attempt-to-halt-snp-surge/

SLAB have lost their “feel” for the Scottish nation. What they think Scots think, and what Scots really think, are 2 completely different things.

This was most clearly illustrated by Gordon Brown's, Ed Balls' and Edward Miliband's intemperate rants. They clearly haven't got the slightest scoobie. In fact, it wouldn't surprise me if it was Brown's late interventions that have put off an awful lot of wavering Tories and Lib Dems from tactically lending Labour their votes this time.

If the cost of saving the Union is FM Gray, then an awful lot of ABC1 Scots are going to say that it isn't worth the price tag.

Jeepers creepers!

2011-05-03T19:59:00.007+01:00

TNS-BMRB/STV
Sample size: 1063
Fieldwork: 26 April - 2 May 2011
(+/- change from TNS-BMRB/STV 27 March)

Constituency vote (FPTP)
SNP 45% (+8)
Lab 27% (-11)
Con 15% (n/c)
LD 10% (+3)

Regional vote (AMS)
SNP 38% (+3)
Lab 25% (-10)
Con 16% (+2)
LD 9% (+1)
Grn 8% (+3)

Clegg's stupid decision

2011-05-03T16:16:00.000+01:00

Alex Salmond has warned that the pro-AV campaign could fail in Scotland because of the "stupid" decision to stage the referendum on the same day as the Holyrood election.

... "It was an absolutely disgraceful thing to do and it was a stupid thing to do, and I'm afraid it's rebounding very badly on Nick Clegg," Salmond said.

The lack of interest from voters and lack of political engagement by party leaders had deepened because AV was not a significant reform of the electoral system, he said.

... He said he had only been asked about the AV issue three times in the last six weeks of campaigning; one of those questions was in Liverpool, when he appeared on Question Time.

"I'm not spending valuable air time talking about AV when I'm in the middle of a Scottish parliamentary election. I can't do it," he said.

Although the current first past the post system was "dreadful", AV was not a sufficiently exciting reform, Salmond claimed.

"It would've been better to have a referendum on a system which people believed in, a proportional system. We would've had a lot more enthusiasm for the yes campaign but I think it was a cardinal error to mix up a referendum with a Scottish parliament vote."

Tom Harris, the Labour MP for Glasgow South and one of the Scottish Labour party's most prominent no campaigners, said the clash of votes was error by Clegg because it meant turn-out would be higher, reducing the impact of votes by supporters of reform.

"Our priority has always been the elections that matter most," he said. "I think the no will probably win, but not by very much."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2011/may/03/salmond-attacks-decision-av-referendum

Enter former FM McLeish and former PM Broon

2011-05-03T05:43:00.004+01:00

I'm not sure what Brown thinks is to be gained by slagging off Scots, Quebecers, Irish and Icelandic people. The man is just drenched in overwhelming negativity. I wonder what it is like being married to such a person?

I for one know that one of the chief reasons I married my wife is because she simply exudes positiveness. I feel sorry for folk that are immersed in cynicism, manipulation and lies.

If this guff attracts former Lib Dem voters to vote Labour then I'm a monkey's uncle. This is exactly the type of thing that appeals to the core Labour vote, and no-one else.

Scottish Sun: 'Off the Leish'

Former [Labour] First Minister Henry McLeish has put the boot into Labour leader Iain Gray's floundering election hopes - by blasting him and praising the SNP. Mr McLeish yesterday dealt yet another blow to Mr Gray as he hit out at his opposition to the Nats' plans for an alcohol price hike. And he also hailed his rivals' bid to tackle Scotland's booze shame - and their continued success in cutting crime.

... He said: "Violent crime is falling and recorded crimes with an offensive weapon, including knife crime, are down by 30 per cent since 2006/7."

The Scotsman: 'You are an affront to democracy, Henry McLeish tells anti-AV group'

The Times: 'Labour brings out Gordon Brown to attack SNP ‘job wreckers’

... He said that Scotland would have been left “floundering like Ireland” if the Nationalists had achieved their goal of independence.

... Labour insiders insisted that a weekend poll showing a narrowing gap with the SNP meant that their party now had the all-important “momentum”. They claimed that Mr Brown’s appearance was designed both to solidify the Labour vote and woo disenchanted Liberal Democrat voters to the Labour cause.

In deliberately consensual language, Mr Brown said: “I know that many people who voted Lib Dem last time are unhappy at what they now see. My message to them is — take a second look at Scottish Labour’s plans for getting young Scots back to work, supporting small businesses to create new jobs, and putting fairness at the heart of everything, everything we do.”

Mr Brown reminded voters that Mr Salmond had said he believed that he would have the “moral authority” to break up Britain if the SNP were to win on Thursday.

He said: “That is a profound arrogance that places a massive roadblock on Scotland’s path to economic recovery and will create a Quebec-style political and economic instability which would wreck jobs when there is an urgent need to create them.”

He added: “When the banks failed, Labour stepped in to protect the jobs, the homes, the mortgages of millions. The SNP would have left Scotland floundering like Iceland and Ireland. Once again, they are the job wreckers when Labour are the job creators.”

The SNP said that his intervention was embarrassing. “Labour’s last redoubt is to focus their negative and dispiriting campaign on a sad echo of their losing 2007 campaign — only Tony Blair is missing.”

NEW MARKET: Conservatives versus Liberal Democrats

2011-05-02T06:34:00.000+01:00

Betfair have a new market up: will the Tories or the Lib Dems win more total seats (ie. constituency + list MSPs) at the 2011 Scottish Parliament general election?

Form is 100% in the Tories favour (they have beaten the Lib Dems by 1 MSP in all 3 general elections to date: 1999, 2003, 2007), and it is extremely difficult to imagine the Lib Dems breaking that run this time. Indeed, the Tories really ought to be approx 5 to 10 MSPs ahead of their London poodles this time, if the published voting intention polls are remotely accurate. And junior coalition partners nearly always suffer more than senior ones.

And sure enough, at the time of writing, it is actually impossible to Back the Tories or to Lay the Lib Dems. So, this looks like being a pretty illiquid market.

(hat-tip: rullko)

FM Salmond tightens to 1/6 with Stan James

2011-05-01T18:46:00.003+01:00

Since Paddy Power suspended their 'Next First Minister' market, Stan James have been the only bookie offering prices.

Today they cut the odds on Salmond being sworn-in as FM again, from 1/5 to 1/6.

Iain Gray lengthens, from 3/1 to 7/2.

Note: according to an Exclusive in today's Sunday Herald, Salmond wants to serve 3 terms as FM.

NEW MARKET: Leaders Debate Cliche Betting

2011-05-01T13:12:00.001+01:00

Paddy Power: "Applies to the BBC Scotland leaders' debate programme 10.25pm, Sunday 1st May. Applies to the first EXACT phrase from the below list that is said by one of the leaders during the debate. Debate sections only count, not introductions."

Education 11/4
New jobs 4/1
Investment 4/1
Tuition fees 5/1
Scottish Living Wage 6/1
Independence referendum bill 6/1
Crime prevention 12/1
Renewable energy 14/1
Council tax bills freeze 14/1
Real change 16/1
Literacy and numeracy 16/1
Family man 16/1
Humble background 20/1
Normal guy 20/1
Scottish bus pass 20/1
Barack Obama 25/1
This is our moment 33/1
I am a fighter, not a quitter 66/1
Paddy Power 500/1

UPDATE - ARB ALERT

There is a new arbitrage opportunity in the Most Seats market:

Ladbrokes have LAB at an extremely long 6
Both Betfair and Smarkets have the SNP at 1.3

Do your sums right, and you have a guaranteed profit of 6.85 GBP from an investment of 100 GBP. Not bad APR for a 4 day investment.

Shetland: Tavish Scott price lengthens yet again

2011-05-01T12:12:00.004+01:00

The money continues to pile on the Independent candidate Billy Fox.

Victor Chandler have just cut the odds on a shock Fox victory in the safest seat in Scotland, to 6/4. He was 150/1 last week.

Conversely, Tavish Scott (Lib Dem leader) is now 1/2 with VC.

Note: Scott's name is NOT on the Lib Dems' Highlands & Islands regional list. If he loses Shetland, he is out of parliament, and the Scottish Liberal Democrats will be looking for a new leader on 6 May.

Bookies best prices - Shetland constituency

Tavish Scott (LD) 1/2 (Victor Chandler)
Billy Fox (Ind) 2/1 (William Hill)
Jean Urquhart (SNP) 14/1 (VC, WH)
Sandy Cross (Con) 100/1 (VC, WH)
Jamie Kerr (Lab) 100/1 (PP, VC, WH)

UPDATE - Shocks now more likely in East Lothian and Orkney too

Victor Chandler have finally woken up today, and there are many price adjustments, including slashing the odds on a shock IND Gain in another Lib Dem stronghold: Orkney. James Stockan is now 4/1 with VC, although you can still get 6/1 at William Hill.

And Iain Gray's price lengthens yet again in East Lothian. Current best prices: LAB 1/3 (WH), SNP 10/3 (VC), CON 125/1 (PP), LD 150/1 (PP).

It is still unlikely, but it is possible that both the Scottish Labour AND the Scottish Lib Dem leaders could be kicked out of parliament on Thursday. Gray is not on the Labour regional list either.

How can Labour be 5/1 when they are only 2 points behind the SNP?

2011-05-01T04:22:00.026+01:00

I for one just cannot make head nor tail of the Most Seats prices.

Ladbrokes, the benchmark politics bookie, has now lengthened the LAB Most Seats price to 5/1 in the middle of the night, presumably on the back of a flood of cash being placed on the back of 2 voting intention polls: Progressive Partnership-Scottish Opinion/Scottish Mail on Sunday and YouGov/Scotland on Sunday.

Fair enough, the SNP constituency lead might be 10 points with Progressive Partnership-Scottish Opinion (just 5 points on the regional vote), but they are not a BPC member firm, and must therefore be treated with less authority than YouGov, who show an 8 point constituency lead, but just a 2 point regional lead. That is within the MoE for heaven's sake.

In an AMS election, it is the regional vote which is the more important.

With 4 days, to go, the momentum appears to be behind LAB for the first time since the autumn. So, why have Ladbrokes now priced SNP Most Seats at a shoo-in 1/10?
My hope is that people backing the SNP at well below Evens are doing so on the back of solid on-the-ground intelligence (eg. canvass returns).

My fear is that they are simply following the crowd.

If you have backed SNP Most Seats below EVS, you'd better be comfortable with losing your stakes, cos right now I'd rate this as a 50:50 contest.

POLL DETAILS

Progressive - Scottish Opinion Omnibus/Scottish Mail on Sunday
Scottish Parliament general election - voting intention
Fieldwork dates: ?
Sample size: approx 1000 (?)
(+/- change from P-SOO/Sunday Mail published 24 April)
Constituency vote (FPTP)
SNP 45% (-1)
Lab 35% (-1)
Con 10% (+1)
LD 6% (n/c)

Regional vote (AMS)
SNP 41% (+3)
Lab 36% (-1)
Con 8% (-2)
Grn 6% (+1)
LD 5% (-4)

Seat projection
(+/- change from notional 2007 result on new boundaries)
SNP 62 MSPs (+16)
Lab 51 MSPs (+7)
Con 8 MSPs (-12)
LD 5 MSPs (-12)
Grn 3 MSPs (+2)
(Ind 0 MSPs (-1))

YouGov/Scotland on Sunday
Scottish Parliament general election - voting intention
Fieldwork dates: ?
Sample size: approx 1000 (?)
(+/- change from YouGov/SoS 19-21 April)
Constituency vote (FPTP)
SNP 42% (-3)
Lab 34% (+2)
Con 12% (+2)
LD 7% (-1)

Regional vote (AMS)
SNP 35% (-4)
Lab 33% (+4)
Con 12% (n/c)
Grn 7% (n/c)
LD 6% (-1)

Seat projection
(+/- change from notional 2007 result on new boundaries)
SNP 55 (+9)
Lab 48 (+4)
Con 13 (-7)
Grn 8 (+7)
LD 5 (-12)
(Ind 0 MSPs (-1))

UPDATE - Lib Dem wipeout on the cards as they slump below the Greens?

The dire Lib Dem numbers in the overnight polls - 5th place behind the Greens - seems to be affecting the betting markets.

The Tavish Scott (Lib Dem leader) price continues to lengthen in Shetland. Paddy Power now have him at 2/5 (from 1/4 yesterday). Billy Fox (Ind) still at 5/2 with Victor Chandler.

Similarly, PP have lengthened the Liam McArthur (Lib Dem incumbent) price in Orkney overnight. Now 2/7 (from 1/5). The SNP's Donna Heddle is 9/2.

UPDATE 2 - Paddy Power lengthening most SNP seat prices

Someone has been up all night at PP, tweaking their seat prices. I have not had time for a detailed look at all 73 FPTP constituencies yet, but from what I can see, PP have lengthened most SNP seat prices on the back of these 2 polls. The only exception I have spotted so far is Skye, Lochaber & Badenoch, where the new PP price on an SNP Gain from LD is 1/4 (from 1/3).

UPDATE 3

On deeper analysis, PP have pretty comprehensively lengthened SNP prices where we are up against Labour or the Tories (eg. Ayr, Clydesdale, Dunfermline, Edinburgh Pentlands, Midlothian North etc etc), but shortened SNP prices where we are up against the Lib Dems (eg. Aberdeenshire East, Caithness). However, Rumbles is a tad shorter in Aberdeenshire West.

Neither VC nor Hills seem to have got out of bed yet.

Shetland: Tavish Scott now out to 1/3

2011-04-30T11:42:00.001+01:00

William Hill enter the Shetland market today, and price Tavish Scott (Lib Dem leader) at 1/3.

Billy Fox (Ind) is just 2/1 at Hills.

Bookies' best prices:

Tavish Scott (LD) 1/3 (WH)
Billy Fox (Ind) 5/2 (VC)
Jean Urquhart (SNP) 14/1 (VC, WH)
Sandy Cross (Con) 100/1 (VC, WH)
Jamie Kerr (Lab) 100/1 (PP, VC, WH)

"On the ground things are possibly even worse for Tavish Scott than his betting odds suggest"

2011-04-29T14:44:00.009+01:00

Here is an anonymous comment left on a previous thread. Make of it what you will, but it certainly caught my attention:

Shetland result will be a very close run thing between Tavish Scott and Billy Fox. Presumably bookies odds are based on balance of bets taken, but on the ground things are possibly even worse for Tavish Scott than his betting odds suggest.

Not exactly scientific or even significant or representative of anything in particular, but local online forum is not good news for one of safest LibDem seats in Scotland:

Shetlink - Who are you voting for in the Scottish Elections ?

Billy Fox 62%
Lib Dem 16%
SNP 14%
Con 3%
Lab 3%

(Note: Shetland is not merely "one of safest LibDem seats in Scotland", it is actually the safest seat in Scotland, held by any party, full stop.)

Current best bookies' prices - Shetland constituency:

Tavish Scott (LD) 1/4 (PP)
Billy Fox (Ind) 5/2 (VC)
Jean Urquhart (SNP) 14/1 (VC)
Sandy Cross (Con) 100/1 (VC)
Jamie Kerr (Lab) 100/1 (PP, VC)

UPDATE

The Karen Whitefield (Lab) price continues to shorten today in the key Lab/SNP ultra-marginal of Airdrie & Shotts. She is now 4/6 with VC. Alex Neil (SNP), who was odds-on FAV prior to yesterday, is now out to 13/8 with PP. Hmmm...

“What about the £100 we’ve been promised for coming here to talk to you?”

2011-04-29T06:24:00.004+01:00

Let's hope that Clifton Terrace have duly settled their bill to Mrs Gillan and all the other pensioners in the room. That'll be a fair sum. Several thou? Where exactly are the Lib Dems going to include that on their declaration of expenses in the Edinburgh Central constituency?

'Pensioners serve up home truths for Clegg'

... Liberals in Central Edinburgh had probably reasoned that Mr Clegg would receive the same tolerant welcome among the pensioners of affluent Stockbridge...

Mrs Gillan was one, but she was far from being the only sceptic in the room. And if these voters harboured any reservations about getting torn into the Deputy Prime Minister, he dispelled them himself by sounding just the weeniest bit patronising in his opening remarks about pensions.

“The pensions minister, someone called Dr Steve Webb, Professor Steve Webb actually, has been working on this idea for ages,” said Mr Clegg with all the forced delight of a meals-on- wheels worker lifting the lid on a plate of over-cooked sprouts. From this month, he announced, everyone on state pension who retires will receive up to £15,000 more over their lifetime.

Joyce Bremner found the prospect unappetising. “So if you’re on a pension already, you won’t get that?” she snapped. “That’s not fair, is it?”

Mr Clegg said he wished that he could wave a magic wand (presumably to take him to a beach in Spain, with his wife, Miriam). Instead he offered a “triple guarantee” of a rising pension in line with inflation or earnings. Mrs Bremner persisted: “But you’re still discriminating.” No, countered Mr Clegg, the Government was sorting things out for “future generations”.

“So, it’s to hell with my generation then?” snarled Mrs Bremner. “Really, that’s not fair,” stammered Mr Clegg.

Mrs Gillan chipped in: “What about the £100 we’ve been promised for coming here to talk to you?” Laugh? Mr Clegg turned a sickly shade of green. It must have been the scones.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/scotland/article3002495.ece

An outstandingly good question from Mrs Gillan, and one which I'm sure the Electoral Commission and the Edinburgh Returning Officer are very keen to hear the answer to.

See also:

http://news.scotsman.com/news/Industry-and-old-folk-send.6759645.jp

NEW MARKET: Year of Scottish independence?

2011-04-28T14:49:00.011+01:00

Many thanks to Victor Chandler for responding so promptly to my post this morning.

VC - Year of Scottish independence?

2020 or later 3/1
2017 4/1
2018 9/2
2014 or earlier 5/1
2016 5/1
2019 5/1
2015 11/2

http://victorchandler.com/vcbet/en-gb/coupon/show/22888/104040798/98/229/5699315/1

UPDATE - Shetland

I hate to say I told you so, but Paddy Power have finally woken up. And, as I guessed, this means that the Tavish Scott price has now shortened to 1/4 !!

The best Billy Fox (Ind) price remains 5/2 with Victor Chandler.

UPDATE 2 - Next FM

Stan James have just lifted their suspension of the Next First Minister prices. Salmond (unsurprisingly) is tighter:

Stan James - Next First Minister?

Alex Salmond 1/5 (shorter, from 4/11)
Iain Gray 3/1 (longer, from 2/1)
Annabel Goldie 66/1 (n/c)
Tavish Scott 100/1 (n/c)

UPDATE 3 - Poll on the way?

Note: Ladbrokes have just totally suspended taking bets on SNP Most Seats (you can still bet on LAB Most Seats though: currently 7/2).

This either means that vast sums are going on the SNP, or else Shadsy has got sniff of a new poll.

UPDATE 4 - LAB shortening in Airdrie & Shotts

Alex Neil (SNP) now lengthened to ~~5/4~~ 13/8 with Paddy Power. Karen Whitefield (Lab) still 6/4 with Victor Chandler.

This is the first significant SNP to Lab movement in the betting markets for weeks!

SHETLAND SHOCKER?

2011-04-28T10:30:00.003+01:00

Holy smoke! Victor Chandler have just lengthened their Tavish Scott price to 1/6. They started out with him at 1/200. In fact, Paddy Power originally had Scott at 1/250.

Must we now consider Shetland to be a marginal seat? If so, this is a once-in-a-lifetime shift in the political tectonic plates. For the last 60 years Shetland has been rock-solid for the Liberals/Alliance/Lib Dems.

I am still waiting for Paddy Power to quote me a Billy Fox (Ind) price, but as things stand right now, these are the best prices available for the Shetland FPTP constituency:

Tavish Scott (LD) 1/6 (VC)
Billy Fox (Ind) 5/2 (VC)
Jean Urquhart (SNP) 14/1 (VC)
Sandy Cross (Con) 100/1 (VC)
Jamie Kerr (Lab) 100/1 (PP, VC)

If you are one of the very lucky punters who got on the Fox bandwagon when VC were pricing him at 150/1, then you now have a great hedging opportunity. Alternatively, if you have the balls, hang around for the Scott price to lengthen even further. I suspect it might when PP eventually wake up.

I am not in on this game, but I sure wish I was. I do have a modest interest in the Orkney race though (I got Heddle when she was 16/1), where I note that the IND price has also tightened, but far less spectacularly:

Liam McArthur (LD) 1/5 (VC)
Donna Heddle (SNP) 9/2 (PP)
James Stockan (Ind) 20/1 (PP)
Jamie Halcro-Johnson (Con) 33/1 (VC)
William Sharkey (Lab) 50/1 (PP, VC)

Will Scotland to be independent country by 2018?

2011-04-28T09:02:00.002+01:00

The Retard splutters:

'Scotland to be independent country by 2018 if SNP win Holyrood election'

... The SNP leader said he was confident of holding a referendum on splitting from the UK before the next Holyrood election in 2016. He insisted he could win the historic vote - and said independence would follow within a further two years.

Salmond said: "I think if we win the argument, we can win the referendum. We'd go into a referendum with arguments to win."

Asked when the split would happen, he replied: "It requires a period of time. In Scotland, we have the analogy of the referendum on devolution in 1997. The parliament was actually set up after that verdict in principle in 1999. Things take time but the most important thing is to have a verdict in principle so the people decide whether this is something they want to do or not."

He added: "I think it's the right way to decide the question of independence. At some point over the next five years, we'll introduce the legislation. And if we get the support of the people, I think the other parties in Scotland might think twice about opposing it in the same way they did last time."

The last bookie to offer prices on Scottish independence was Paddy Power, about 2 years ago if memory serves me correctly. I think they phrased it something like "before 2020", and the odds on 'Yes' were extremely long.

I will be contacting several bookies, including PP, to see if somebody is willing to publish prices on the referendum outcome.

UPDATE

Victor Chandler tell me that they "are creating a book at the moment". Sounds exciting!

There is a God

2011-04-28T06:37:00.002+01:00

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-13213531

Could Tavish Scott really lose Shetland?

2011-04-27T20:18:00.001+01:00

Hold on to your hats folks. Victor Chandler have just cut the odds on Independent Billy Fox unseating Lib Dem leader Tavish Scott. He started off at a write-off price of 150/1. Tonight Victor Chandler have just cut his price to a very short 6/4!

Congrats to those who got on Fox at 150/1.

Bookies' best prices - Shetland

Tavish Scott - Lib Dems 1/25 (VC)
Billy Fox - Independent 6/4 (VC)
Jean Urquhart - SNP 12/1 (PP, VC)
Sandy Cross - Conservative 80/1 (PP)
Jamie Kerr - Labour 100/1 (PP, VC)

Here is a link to Fox's website:

http://www.billyfox.co.uk/?page_id=228

Greetin-faced bairns

2011-04-27T15:41:00.001+01:00

'Scottish Labour complains over Twitter hoax'
- Labour party complains to Twitter over spoof 'Labour Scotland' account that has made mocking and outlandish claims about its election campaign

The spoof @LABOURSCOTLAND feed alleged on Wednesday that Labour voters feared independence for Scotland would plunge the country into famine, while "thousands of Scots would starve to death" and there would be "a cold, mean, violent future for all".

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/blog/2011/apr/27/scottish-labour-complains-twitter-hoax

UPDATE - Money continues to go on a 2nd shock John Mason victory in Glasgow East

The John Mason (SNP by-election victor from 2008) price continues to shorten in Glasgow Shettleston. Victor Chandler have just brought it in from 12/1 to 7/1 (same as Paddy Power). The best SNP price in this seat in now the 10/1 from William Hill (shortened from 14/1).

New market: how many Green MSPs?

2011-04-27T07:39:00.001+01:00

Courtesy of William Hill:

Total Green MSPs

two or over 1/2
one 7/4
none 10/1

http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/g/636470/Greens-Specials.html

UPDATE

Coral have just shortened their SNP Most Seats price yet again. This means that the best price you can now find is a miserly 2/9 (Bet365, Betfair, Paddy Power and William Hill).

Gray price lengthening in East Lothian

2011-04-26T15:54:00.002+01:00

Paddy Power have just lengthened the Iain Gray price in East Lothian, from 1/12 to 1/6.

When Victor Chandler first published prices for this seat they had Gray at 1/200 !

New best prices:

Iain Gray - Labour 1/6 (Paddy Power)
David Berry - SNP 5/1 (William Hill)
Derek Brownlee - Conservative 125/1 (Paddy Power)
Ettie Spencer - Lib Dems 150/1 (Paddy Power)

Could we be about to witness one of the biggest political shocks of recent times? Remember, Iain Gray was the only Labour MSP to lose to a Tory at the 2003 general election, in Edinburgh Pentlands.

UPDATE

The John Mason (SNP victor at the Glasgow East by-election in 2008) price is shortening in Glasgow Shettleston. Paddy Power have just taken him in from 12/1 to 7/1. However, if you are a John fan, nip over to William Hill for a wee bite of 14/1 !! It won't last long folks ;)

(hat-tip: marcia)

Is Labour set to lose all its constituency seats in Lothian?

2011-04-26T13:48:00.002+01:00

I very much doubt it. Iain Gray is a very short 1/9 with William Hill to Hold his East Lothian seat. Chisholm is just 2/5 (PP) to Hold his Edinburgh Northern & Leith seat.

And Labour surely look set to gain the new Edinburgh Southern from the collapsing Lib Dems? Godzik is 8/13 with Paddy Power.

And what about Edinburgh Central, where Boyack is 8/15 with Paddy Power? Notionally a Lib Dem seat under the new boundaries, but where the Lib Dems look set to come a distant 3rd, perhaps even 4th.

Anyhoo, the respected Ian Swanson has this in today's Edinburgh Evening News:

'Balls rolls into Capital as Labour faces Lothian ruin'

... poll projections suggested the party could lose all its constituency seats in Lothian.

... as opinion polls over the last few days have shown a swing of five or six per cent from Labour to the SNP, which would be enough for the Nationalists not only to hang on to Edinburgh Eastern where Justice Secretary Kenny MacAskill is being challenged by former council leader Ewan Aitken, but also to win Edinburgh Northern & Leith from Malcolm Chisholm.

The SNP would hold Angela Constance's Almond Valley seat, win Linlithgow from Labour's Mary Mulligan and take the new Midlothian North & Musselburgh, not to mention party leader Iain Gray's own East Lothian constituency.

If the swing was replicated in all seats, it would also mean Labour's Sarah Boyack losing Edinburgh Central, not to the Lib Dems, who are seen as the main challengers, but to the SNP. Labour's best chance of winning a constituency seat would then be Paul Godzik ousting Lib Dem Mike Pringle in Edinburgh Southern.

Ms Boyack would be elected from the Lothians top-up list, along with number two Kezia Dugdale and possibly number three Neil Findlay.

A Labour source said such a scenario was "outlandish".

... A former chairman of Edinburgh Central Labour Party has joined the SNP. Jim Hill, from Stenhouse, a Labour Party member for 25 years, said he was disillusioned and was supporting Alex Salmond's bid for a second term as First Minister.

Ten days to save the Union

2011-04-26T07:51:00.003+01:00

As Gordon Brown said, Labour are the "last bastion" against the SNP. So, how will soft Lib Dem- and Tory-sympathising swing-voters respond to the final 'Big Squeeze'?

The problem for Labour is that they have cried wolf one time too often. People are quite simply sick to the back teeth of their retarded whining.

Besides, if the cost of "saving the Union" is First Minister Gray, an awful lot of folk are going to say that that is just too high a price ticket. They have the wrong figurehead topping their "last bastion".

Angus Macleod has a tremendous piece of analysis behind the paywall this morning:

'I hate to say this, Iain, but I told you so'

... A Labour MP told me last week precisely what was wrong with his party’s core message and why it didn’t work on the doorsteps.

“If you ask an undecided voter to vote Labour and not SNP because only Labour can be trusted to stand up for Scotland against the Tories, it invites the question: ‘Are you saying Alex Salmond doesn’t stand up for Scotland?’ And of course there’s no real answer to that because Salmond, whatever his faults, has made a political career out of standing up for Scotland.”

Needless to say, the advice of that MP had not been sought by Labour’s campaign team.

... The change of direction also recognises that whatever else this election is about, it is not about core voters... The problem has been getting through to those disillusioned Liberal Democrat and Conservative voters who are thinking of voting for the first time for the SNP... So far in this campaign Labour’s campaign has virtually ignored them...

... There is another problem, anyway, for Labour in this election and it is not one that a Gray speech, no matter how combative, will remove.

As poll after poll shows, too many Scots have concluded that whatever else he is, Mr Gray does not meet their expectations of what a First Minister should be. He remains, in their view, a poor substitute for Alex Salmond and in the end, that remains the really decisive fact of this election for Labour...

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/scotland/article2998648.ece

UPDATE

See also: 'Fright to the finish'

TEACHING SCARE STORY
3,000 teaching posts axed under the SNP
FACT
Two-thirds were sacked by Labour councils

KNIFE CRIME SCARE STORY
Knife crime is wrecking lives under SNP
FACT
Crime has plunged during Nat Government

JOBS SCARE STORY
Youth unemployment is soaring under SNP
FACT
Nats creating 25,000 apprenticeships a year

Iain Gray loses the plot

2011-04-25T21:14:00.001+01:00

What on earth is Iain Gray thinking? This is just the kind of negative guff and lies that got him into the mess in the first place.

Gray and his stooges really really ought to read up on this topic.

SNP's Alex Salmond 'downright dangerous' says Scottish Labour leader
- Iain Gray launches personal attack and warns disaffected Liberal Democrats to vote against the break-up of the UK

... warned voters they now "stand on the edge" of bringing in a government intent on breaking up the UK.

... Gray made a series of personal attacks on Salmond, in a dramatic switch in tactics, claiming the first minister "only cares about his own job, he doesn't care about yours ... he will say anything to anyone to make his vision of independence come true".

After watching their apparent 10-point advantage in the polls evaporate over the past three weeks, stunned Labour officials are openly contemplating defeat on 5 May and some backbench MPs are now directly attacking the handling of the Scottish campaign.

Party officials admit that a much larger number of Lib Dem voters and some Tory voters appear to be switching to the SNP in the suburbs and rural areas outside Labour's core areas in central and west Scotland.

Labour's strategy of focusing their energies on winning 20 target seats has solidified support in those seats but has made the error of ignoring other constituencies and non-core voters.

... Labour now estimates that the SNP could win up to 54 seats, taking constituencies in the Highlands, north-east Scotland and the Borders, in part because some Lib Dem voters want to keep Labour out of power, while Tories may vote tactically for the same reason.

... One senior official said he still believed Labour would win but by a very narrow margin.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2011/apr/25/alex-salmond-scotland-election

UPDATE

Jeepers creepers. They are desperate, aren't they!

'Labour chiefs draft in supporters from Northern Ireland to help save ailing Holyrood campaign':

"They are offering to pay air fares to Edinburgh and hotel accommodation for anyone coming over. There is plenty of work to be done."

http://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/scotsol/homepage/news/holyroodelection2011/3545715/Labours-pushed-the-panic-button.html#ixzz1KZJZZNjf

Who is going to win the 73 FPTP seats? * UPDATE *

2011-04-25T10:33:00.005+01:00

This is an update on this post from 11 April. The changes in the bookies' prices in some cases are quite stunning.

Digital odds are used:

Definition:
"safe" is when the FAV is priced at 1.15 or shorter
"marginal" when FAV is priced at 1.16 to 1.74
"ultra marginal" is when FAV is priced at 1.75 or longer

Only FAV prices are shown in the safe seats.

Seats changing hands - according to the bookies - are in bold. Note: changes are from the notional 2007 results.

Seats which have changed group since 11 April are in italics. All these movements are in the SNP's favour (eg. Aberdeen Donside has moved from the 'Marginals with SNP FAV' group to the 'Safe SNP' group), with the exception of Eastwood, which has moved in Labour's favour from an Ultra-marginal to a Marginal, and Ettrick, Roxburgh & Berwickshire, which has moved from a Marginal to a Safe Tory seat.

Best bookies' prices as at 25 April 2011:

Safe SNP
Banffshire and Buchan Coast 1
Perthshire North 1
Aberdeenshire East 1.01
Angus South 1.01
Moray 1.01
Inverness & Nairn 1.02
Angus North & Mearns 1.03
Dundee City East 1.03
Argyll & Bute 1.05
Dundee City West 1.05
Perthshire South & Kinross-shire 1.05
Mid Fife & Glenrothes 1.07
Aberdeen Donside 1.08
Clackmannanshire & Dunblane 1.1
Caithness, Sutherland & Ross 1.12 SNP GAIN from LD
Na h-Eileanan an Iar 1.12
Aberdeen South & North Kincardine 1.14 SNP GAIN from LD
Kilmarnock & Irvine Valley 1.14

Safe Labour
Glasgow Maryhill & Springburn 1.01
Glasgow Provan 1.01
Glasgow Shettleston 1.01
Glasgow Anniesland 1.02
Glasgow Pollock 1.02
Motherwell & Wishaw 1.02
Renfrewshire South 1.02
Rutherglen 1.02
Uddingston & Bellshill 1.02
Coatbridge & Chryston 1.04
Kirkcaldy 1.04
Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley 1.05
Clydebank & Milngavie 1.05
Greenock & Inverclyde 1.07
Hamilton, Larkhill & Stonehouse 1.07
Cowdenbeath 1.1
East Lothian 1.11
Paisley 1.12
Renfrewshire North & West 1.12

Safe Tory
Ettrick, Roxburgh & Berwickshire 1.13

Safe Lib Dem
Shetland 1.01

Marginals with SNP FAV
Edinburgh Eastern 1.17 (Lab 4.33) SNP GAIN from Lab
Midlothian South, Tweeddale & Lauderdale 1.17 (LD 8, Lab 9)
Aberdeen Central 1.2 (Lab 5)
Cunninghame North 1.22 (Lab 4)
Glasgow Southside 1.22 (Lab 4) SNP GAIN from Lab
Falkirk West 1.25 (Lab 3.75)
Skye, Lochaber & Badenoch 1.25 (LD 4) SNP GAIN from LD
Almond Valley 1.33 (Lab 3.25)
Linlithgow 1.4 (Lab 2.75) SNP GAIN from Lab
Stirling 1.44 (Lab 2.75) SNP GAIN from Lab
Airdrie & Shotts 1.53 (Lab 2.5) SNP GAIN from Lab
Midlothian North & Musselburgh 1.57 (Lab 2.5) SNP GAIN from Lab
Aberdeenshire West 1.67 (LD 2.1) SNP GAIN from LD
Galloway & West Dumfries 1.73 (Con 2.1) SNP GAIN from Con

Marginals with Lab FAV
Glasgow Cathcart 1.29 (SNP 3.75)
Strathkelvin &Bearsden 1.29 (SNP 3.5)
East Kilbride 1.33 (SNP 3.5)
Dumfriesshire 1.4 (Con 5) LAB GAIN from Con
Edinburgh Northern & Leith 1.4 (SNP 3)
Falkirk East 1.4 (SNP 2.75)
Cumbernauld & Kilsyth 1.44 (SNP 2.75)
Dunfermline 1.5 (SNP 2.88) LAB GAIN from LD
Edinburgh Central 1.53 (SNP 3) LAB GAIN from LD
Edinburgh Southern 1.62 (LD 2.62) LAB GAIN from LD
Glasgow Kelvin 1.62 (SNP 2.2)
Cunninghame South 1.67 (SNP 2.1)
Dumbarton 1.73 (SNP 2.1)
Eastwood 1.73 (Con 2) LAB GAIN from Con

Marginals with Tory FAV
Ayr 1.73 (SNP 2.5)

Marginals with Lib Dem FAV
Orkney 1.2 (SNP 5.5)
North East Fife 1.4 (SNP 3.25)

Ultra marginals with SNP FAV
Clydesdale 1.8 (Lab 2) SNP GAIN from Lab

Ultra marginals with Lab FAV
none

Ultra marginals with Tory FAV
Edinburgh Pentlands 2 (SNP 2.38)

Ultra marginals with Lib Dem FAV
Edinburgh Western 1.83 (SNP 1.91)

The wrong question

2011-04-25T04:00:00.002+01:00

If Edward Miliband and Ed Balls are the answer, then SLAB are asking the wrong question.

'Labour’s big guns in bid to save Gray'

Ed Miliband and Ed Balls are expected to come to Scotland this week to throw their weight behind Labour’s election campaign in a desperate attempt to rescue Iain Gray’s faltering bid to become First Minister.

The UK party leader and the Shadow Chancellor will mount a concerted attack on Alex Salmond’s plans to hold an independence referendum.

... Labour strategists have been badly shaken by the SNP’s ability to extend their poll lead from three points on the constituency vote and two on the list in such a short space of time.

Senior party figures are now conceding that the IPSOS MORI poll published in last week’s Times, which showed Labour 10 points behind in both votes, marked a turning point in the campaign.

One said: “We have misjudged the campaign, this is not a core vote election, we have not done enough to reach out to the great number of undecideds and to the Liberal Democrats who have turned against their party.”

... Meanwhile David Cameron has accused Mr Salmond of acting like a South American President.

The Prime Minister said: “Alex Salmond is trying to make the election out to be an election for First Minister.

“He acts like Il Presidente Salmondo.”

Labour MPs "frozen out" by party’s national HQ in Glasgow

2011-04-22T08:16:00.000+01:00

I am off for a relaxing Easter weekend with the family. Before I go, two gems from behind the paywall:

Labour MPs ‘frozen out’ as Gray’s campaign falters

... MPs who have spoken to The Times say that while they are free to help candidates in their local area, they have been sidelined by the party’s national HQ in Glasgow in a move described by one as “a total nonsense”.

... The MPs say that it appears Mr Gray and his closest allies have decided to run a “Holyrood-only” campaign and, in the process, have robbed themselves of vital election expertise.

“They appear to believe that people at Westminster who, after all, have a good track record in winning elections in Scotland are a liability,” one embittered MP said. Another backbencher said. “I have never even received a call from John Smith House [Labour’s Scottish HQ] and I do not know any of my colleagues who have.”

... Gordon Brown, the former Prime Minister, campaigning at constituency in Fife for his former agent, Alex Rowley, and alongside Mr Gray, also dismissed the poll saying he was “not interested in it”. Mr Brown added: “I am only interested in the issues.”

... One candidate said: “Voters know that Alex Salmond will also stand up to the Tory-led Government and the cuts and they think Salmond will do a better job of protecting them than Iain [Gray]. We are treading water because we do not have a powerful message that voters can understand.”

... Bashir Maan, a former Labour councillor in Glasgow for 25 years, announced that he would be supporting Nicola Sturgeon, the Deputy First Minister and SNP candidate in Glasgow Southside, where the Nationalists are engaged in a close-run contest with Labour.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/scotland/article2995613.ece

Chancellor’s offshore tactic will backfire, says economist

... Alex Kemp, Professor of Economics at Aberdeen University, says that even with crude oil prices as high as $90 per barrel, major projects have been rendered uneconomic.
Professor Kemp’s analysis has been hailed by the offshore oil industry as proof that they have not been crying wolf over George Osborne’s tax hikes.

... Professor Kemp said that the report showed that the Government’s policy of maximising the economic recovery of oil from the North Sea had been impeded. He said: “A noteworthy finding is that even under the $90 price case, a substantial number of fields and projects are rendered uneconomic by the tax increases.”

At $90 per barrel, the study suggested that there would be 79 fewer new oil and gas field developments, reducing production by 2.3 billion barrels between now and 2041. There would also be £29.1 billion less spent on oilfield development and £52.2 billion less spent on total oilfield operations.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/scotland/article2995596.ece

POLL ALERT: new Ipsos MORI leader data

2011-04-21T22:07:00.005+01:00

poll findings: http://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Scotland/politicaltrend_spomapr11leaderschart_21-04-11.pdf

'Salmond remains most popular party leader with record rating'

... When asked who would make the more capable First Minister, over half of Scots (53%) chose Alex Salmond over Iain Gray who was supported by around a quarter (23%). Again, Alex Salmond draws wider support from across the parties than Iain Gray, including over a quarter (28%) of Labour supporters who think Salmond would make the more capable First Minister.

http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/2777/Scottish-Public-Opinion-Monitor-2011-Perceptions-of-party-leaders.aspx

(hat-tip: Barbazenzero)

William Hill launch a seat price: East Lothian

2011-04-21T22:01:00.000+01:00

Hills join Paddy Power and Victor Chandler in the constituency markets. At time of writing they only have one seat up:

East Lothian

Iain Gray - Labour 1/9
David Berry - SNP 5/1
Ettie Spencer - Liberal Democrat 100/1
Derek Brownlee - Conservative 100/1

Note: Iain Gray is NOT on Labour's regional list, so if he loses East Lothian, he is out of parliament.

This could be fun.

Is a North East Fife shock possible?

2011-04-21T18:07:00.000+01:00

Lordy, lordy, lordy.

Could the Lib Dems - horor of horrors - be about to lose North East Fife to the SNP?

The prices on an LD Hold have been lengthening, and on a Rod Campbell shock victory shortening.

Iain Smith - Lib Dems 2/5 PP
Rod Campbell - SNP 11/4 VC
Miles Briggs - Conservative 14/1 VC
Colin Davidson - Labour 50/1 PP
Mike Scott-Hayward - UKIP 100/1 VC

That'll get Menzies Campbell thinking...

When was the last time a former party leader defected?

Is Rupert Murdoch naïve?

2011-04-21T17:14:00.000+01:00

Nats’ new friends will come to rue their naïvety
- If the First Minister’s latest backers think they’ll get a sort of Eck Lite rather than a full-strength separatist, they’re only deluding themselves, writes Alan Cochrane

The naïve belief that you can back Alex Salmond for First Minister but not his plan to break up Britain is surely beginning to dawn on a whole host of dupes this morning.

... Mr Salmond wants to end the 300-year Union and plans to use his very best endeavours to take Scotland out of the United Kingdom.

The idea that this core objective is no longer top of Mr Salmond’s priorities is nonsense and if he succeeds in forming another administration after May 5, especially with an increased margin over Labour as the latest opinion poll suggests, he will immediately begin preparations for his referendum on independence.

... As for the political ingénues who back this Eck Lite character, it’s up to them to get themselves off this ludicrous hook on which they’ve impaled themselves.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/alancochrane/8466931/Nats-new-friends-will-come-to-rue-their-naivety.html

SNP to press for another independence referendum

2011-04-21T15:23:00.000+01:00

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/04/21/uk-scotland-elections-idUKTRE73K3ZI20110421

Fiona Hyslop goes odds-on FAV

2011-04-21T15:15:00.000+01:00

New best prices:

Linlithgow (notional Labour)

Fiona Hyslop (SNP) 5/4 (VC)
Mary Mulligan (Lab) 7/4 (PP)
Christopher Donnelly (Con) 100/1 (PP, VC)
Jennifer Lang (LD) 200/1 (VC)

Lib Dems to fall to 3rd in Dunfermline?

2011-04-21T11:42:00.000+01:00

Lordy, this could be an even funnier election than we ever imagined in our wildest dreams:

Best prices - Dunfermline

Alex Rowley - Labour 1/2 (PP)
William Walker - SNP 5/1 (VC)
Jim Tolson - Lib Dems 7/1 (PP) *** incumbent***
James Reekie - Conservative 200/1 (PP)

Do you remember all the Lib Dem ramping in 2006? Well, the chickens are coming home to roost.

SNP go FAV in Aberdeen Central

2011-04-21T11:19:00.007+01:00

For the first time Kevin Stewart has overtaken Lewis MacDonald as the odds-on Favourite in the key SNP/Lab marginal Aberdeen Central.

Best prices:
SNP 4/6 (VC)
Lab 6/4 (PP)
LD 33/1 (PP)
Con 200/1 (VC)

SNP prices are shortening all over the country, for example Hyslop in Linlithgow and McLeod in Galloway & West Dumfries.

UPDATE

Mike Rumbles lengthens to Evens in the supposedly "safe" (ahem) Lib Dem seat of Aberdeenshire West:
LD EVS (VC)
SNP 11/10 (PP)
Con 18/1 (PP)
Lab 100/1 (PP)

UPDATE 2 ARB ALERT

Alex Neil goes Joint FAV in Airdrie & Shotts!! This is the very heartland of Lanarkshire Labour. Where's yer Helen Liddell noo?
SNP 6/4 (VC)
Lab 6/4 (PP)
Con 100/1
LD 150/1

UPDATE 3 etc - quick spots

Chic Brodie goes into 2nd spot in Ayr, leapfrogging Lab hopeful Gordon McKenzie.

Rob Gibson starting to look like a shoo-in in Lib Dem "stronghold" (ahem) Caithness, Sutherland & Ross:
SNP 1/5 (VC)
LD 9/2 (PP)
Lab 50/1 (VC)

Karen Gillon (Lab) out to EVS in Clydesdale. Aileen Campbell (SNP) now shortens to 5/2 (VC).

Kenny Gibson (SNP) now clear FAV (1/2) to Hold key SNP/Lab marginal Cunninghame North. Bad loser Allan Wilson (Lab) lengthens to 11/4 (PP).

ARB ALERT

2011-04-21T08:19:00.001+01:00

Wonderful arbitrage opportunity right now:

Coral SNP Most Seats 2 (57.26 GBP)
Betfair LAB Most Seats 2.68 (42.74 GBP)

Invest 100 GBP in the right proportions and get 14.43 GBP profit. Guaranteed.

UPDATE

Angela Constance has just gone odds-on (PP) for the first time in key Lab/SNP marginal Almond Valley. You can still get her at EVS with VC.

Labour longer than Evens for first time

2011-04-21T07:32:00.001+01:00

Bet365 has just become the first bookie to price LAB Most Seats at longer than EVS: now ~~11/10~~ 6/4.

Best SNP Most Seats price is EVS with Coral. I doubt that'll last more than a couple of hours once everyone wakes up this morning.

Curtice: half of remaining Lib Dem supporters might yet switch

2011-04-21T05:18:00.000+01:00

John Curtice Commentary: 'SNP ability to draw voters across the spectrum puts it in the driving seat'

... support for the SNP is seemingly more enthusiastic than that for Labour.

... Labour supporters are... more likely to say they could yet change their minds.

Equally, Labour supporters are less likely than backers of the nationalists to say they are certain to make it to the polls.

... With just two weeks to polling day, Labour badly need to undermine the SNP’s new-found support. Here Labour might find today’s poll helpful, for it suggests the nationalists might now do sufficiently well on May 5 for them to be able, with the backing of the Greens, to secure the parliamentary votes they need to hold a referendum on independence.

Some of the SNP’s softer supporters might be reckoning, given the party’s failure to make progress on the issue during the past four years, that they can safely back the nationalists without threatening the Union. Labour might now use this poll to disabuse them of that thought.

But there seem to be opportunities for the SNP to garner more support as around half of Liberal Democrat supporters say they might yet change their mind. Expect Mr Salmond to do his best to try to win them over.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/scotland/article2994039.ece

Labour collapse in Lothian?

2011-04-21T04:49:00.004+01:00

Are Labour in 5th place on the regional vote?

Edinburgh Evening News readers' survey
Lothian electoral region - voting intention

Constituency vote (FPTP)

SNP 47%
Lab 27%
LD 16%
Con 11%

List vote (AMS)

SNP 37% (+11)
Margo Macdonald 20% (+13)
LD 13% (n/c)
Con 12% (-1)
Lab 11% (-15)
Grn 7% (n/c)

(hat-tip: wabbit hunter)

Disclaimer: some might classify this as a "voodoo poll".

UPDATE

I've just got a fair sum on Fiona Hyslop in Linlithgow, at 13/8 (both PP and VC).

She only needs a 0.5% swing to gain the re-drawn seat from Mary Mulligan. It would be very odd indeed if Hyslop didn't manage that modest task in the current circumstances.

POLL SHOCK: SNP hit 45%

2011-04-21T03:11:00.011+01:00

From The Times:

... within touching distance of winning an overall majority at Holyrood on May 5...

... the tantalising prospect for a re-elected Nationalist government in Scotland of having just enough parliamentary support among SNP and Green MSPs to hold their much-desired referendum on independence.

Ipsos MORI/Times
Scottish general election voting intention
Sample size: 1,019
Fieldwork: 14-17 Apr 2011
(+/-change from Ipsos MORI Feb 2011)

Constituency vote (FPTP)

SNP 45% (+8)
Lab 34% (-2)
Con 10% (-3)
LD 9% (-1)

Regional vote (AMS)

SNP 42% (+7)
Lab 32% (-1)
Con 10% (-3)
LD 8% (-2)
oth% 8% (-1)

John Curtice seat projection
(+/- change from notional 2007 result on new boundaries)

SNP 61 seats (+15)
Lab 45 seats (+1)
Con 10 seats (-10)
LD 9 seats (-8)
Grn 4 seats (+3)
(oth 0 seats (-1))

Total = 129 seats

65 seats required to form majority government

SNP + Grn = 65 seats
Unionist grand alliance: Lab + Con + LD = 64 seats

http://www.ipsos-mori.com/scotland

Scottish Sun: ... University of Strathclyde Professor of Politics Jim Mitchell said: "These numbers are staggering. The only question now is whether the SNP has peaked too early and can they keep up the momentum that we have seen building in successive polls. Maybe they can - but it means the total collapse of the Labour campaign. If Labour support goes below the levels they got in 2007 that would be disastrous for them. But I don't think that will happen because of the collapse in the Lib Dems support."

http://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/scotsol/homepage/news/holyroodelection2011/3538818/Labours-old-nags-arent-at-the-races.html

Bet365 give in too

2011-04-20T21:11:00.000+01:00

The final bookie laying SNP Most Seats longer than Evens finally gives in to the market pressure.

Bet365 - Scottish GE - Most seats?

Lab 8/11 (longer, from 4/6)
SNP EVS (shorter, from 11/10)
Con 200/1 (n/c)
LD 250/1 (n/c)

However, the best LAB Most Seats price remains the 5/6 from Ladbrokes, Hills, Betfair and Smarkets.

The best SNP Most Seats price is now EVENS, available from Bet365, Coral, Paddy Power and Victor Chandler.

Edinburgh Evening News readers' panel is "Grim reading for Labour"

2011-04-20T15:07:00.000+01:00

'Grim reading for Labour and its leader'

The survey of readers we publish today is no more than a snapshot of voting intentions ahead of May 5, but its key messages are in line with trends seen elsewhere as the Holyrood election looms.

And, taken together, they make grim reading for Scottish Labour and its leader, East Lothian MSP Iain Gray.

... Our panel put the SNP leader comfortably ahead of Gray and his party streets ahead of Labour, especially in the list vote. There, incidentally, is a welcome sign that Margo MacDonald should be comfortably returned to parliament.

... Also, the bookies still have Labour as favourites - and they are rarely wrong. But only just ...

http://news.scotsman.com/opinion/Scottish-election--Grim-reading.6755000.jp

Hills give in to the pressure

2011-04-20T14:37:00.000+01:00

William Hill have just given in to the sums of cash now going on SNP Most Seats. They follow Ladbrokes' lead during the weekend, and legthen their LAB price and shorten their SNP price so that they are joint FAV:

William Hill - Scottish GE - Most seats?

SNP 5/6 (shorter, from 11/10 yesterday)
Lab 5/6 (longer, from 4/6 yesterday)
Con 125/1
LD 125/1

This means that Hills, Ladbrokes, Betfair and Smarkets are all laying LAB Most Seats at 5/6, the best LAB price available since the market began last autumn (excepting a couple of hours when they hit EVS on Betfair).

SNP Most Seats buyers should head over to Bet365, where you can currently still get 11/10. This is unlikely to last long now that Hills have buckled.

The Daily Retard yelps

2011-04-20T08:52:00.001+01:00

20 years ago enough people still bought and read the Retard for it to matter. No longer.

'Vote for Alex Salmond, help David Cameron'

http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/2011/04/20/vote-for-alex-salmond-get-david-cameron-86908-23073815/

Time to take the mingin London lapdog to the vets.

What is the circulation of this Trinity Mirror comic now? More than the Hootsmon anyway.

UPDATE

Love the photo! :D

http://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/scotsol/homepage/news/holyroodelection2011/3536508/Its-all-a-matter-of-mistrust.html

Labour caught lying again

2011-04-20T05:23:00.000+01:00

How did Richard Baker turn £10m into £500m? Scaremongering and blatant lying is the only thing they know how to do. Speaking of which, is it not about time that they rolled out their well-rehearsed "Union Dividend" tale? That one always has us rolling in the aisles.

From behind the paywall:

Labour’s knife crime policy ‘descends into disarray’

... [Richard Baker, Labour’s justice spokesman] claimed that the £500 million figure was not Labour’s, but had surfaced at a conference organised by a Glasgow-based campaign organisation Medics Against Violence.

However, Caroline Foulkes of Strathclyde Police’s Violence Reduction Unit denied this, saying the group had never actually organised a conference.

She said: “They’ve never held a conference. We do all their administration for them and their administration lady sits in our office. I think we would know if there had been a conference.”

... In spite of Mr Baker’s quoted remarks, a Labour spokesman continued to say that the figure of £500 million did not originate with the Labour Party.

... The SNP attacked what they said was Labour’s “deception” on knife crime. The Nationalists added: “Labour’s policy on knife crime has descended into chaos and disarray. Labour are not just making up policy they are making up the numbers.”

See also:

- The Scotsman: Labour's claim knife crime costs the NHS £500m a year is slammed as 'a deception' - Mr Baker was forced to defend the £500m figure in a television interview after one independent statistician claimed that the actual cost was likely to be no more than £10m to the NHS.

SNP going to win "quite comfortably"

2011-04-19T21:17:00.001+01:00

'Gray is a liability, says Galloway'

... The ex-Labour MP said: "The Labour Party, who had this election apparently in their hands, have contrived to lose it - lose it with their dull and negative campaign and lose it with the monkey on their back that's called Iain Gray."

Referring to earlier party figures, he added: "I don't know how that party of Willie Ross, and Bruce Millan, and Donald Dewar shrunk to the extent that it became the party of Iain Gray."

... Mr Galloway said Labour's current situation will mean "the SNP are going to win and, at the current rate of acceleration, win quite comfortably".

... He added: "No less than 25% of SNP voters are against Scottish independence. So am I but I know why those 25% are voting SNP. It's because the SNP seem more like Labour than Labour. It's perverse, I know, but the SNP has come to seem like a more sincere repository of Labour values."

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ukpress/article/ALeqM5jvHiBpIU-SIHPdT6wf54SSJA9OTA?docId=N0018851303228225339A

Scottish Sun switches to back SNP

2011-04-19T09:40:00.001+01:00

'Play it again, Salm'

... The Scottish Sun today urges voters to hand him a second term at the Holyrood election on May 5. This is a critical election, set against the backdrop of a crippling recession, public spending cuts and high unemployment. And we believe that the SNP are best placed to help drag Scotland out of the economic shambles left by Labour - and to help drive our country forward.

... But let's be clear from the outset, The Scottish Sun might back Mr Salmond - but that DOESN'T mean we support Scottish independence. In vital areas like the economy and defence, Scotland is undoubtedly stronger as part of the Union. But what we do believe is that Scots have the absolute right to decide their own destiny in a referendum.

... Mr Salmond has pulled off the remarkable trick of being a safe pair of hands and a charismatic, imaginative leader at the same time. He is Holyrood's only genuine statesman - the one politician in our Parliament who truly looks the part on the world stage.

See also:

- Scottish Sun: Warning: Voting Labour is bad for your health

- The Spectator blog, Alex Massie - The Sun Shines on Salmond

- The Guardian blog - Why is the Sun backing Alex Salmond?

Latest Westminster VI sub-sample

2011-04-19T09:09:00.001+01:00

There continues to be a huge discrepancy between Holyrood VI and Westminster VI, although one very big fact consistently stands out a mile: the Scottish Lib Dems are utterly shafted.

We live in a fascinating period in Scottish civic life: a longstanding, historic strand of public thought - Whig to Liberal to Alliance to LibDem - is, before our very eyes, dying out. We are moving from a 4-party system to a 3-party system.

ComRes/Sunday Mirror
Westminster voting intention - Scotland
Fieldwork: 13-15 April 2011
Sub-sample size = 182
(+/- change from UK GE 2010)

Lab 43% (+1)
SNP 27% (+7)
Con 17% (n/c)
LD 6% (-13)
Grn 3% (+2)
UKIP 1% (n/c)
BNP 1% (+1)
oth 1% (-1)

http://www.comres.co.uk/page1902401938.aspx

See also:

- Scottish LibDems reeling as Cable departs from script

- Scott rages against London LibDems Campagning

- Coalition of the Damned may doom Scots LibDems

POLL ALERT

2011-04-19T06:02:00.005+01:00

According to Angus Macleod article in The Times:

Commentary: candidates are sidelining ‘one-dimensional’ Gray

... as undecided voters make up their minds whom they will favour on May 5, they appear, increasingly, to be plumping for the SNP and Alex Salmond.

If another poll to be published this week in The Times confirms that trend, Labour tacticians will have to press the panic button. Five more long years of opposition will beckon.

The roots of what has gone wrong with Labour’s approach to this election lies in its monumental misunderstanding of how Scottish voters view Mr Salmond.

... contrary to what Labour claimed — and indeed to what it is still claiming — while Mr Salmond may not be universally loved in Scotland, he is universally respected.

... Labour, instead of fighting a campaign against the Tories at Westminster, urgently needs to find a way to pop the Salmond bubble before May 5. They have got two weeks.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/scotland/article2991363.ece

UPDATE

Another interesting Macleod article today:

Labour hopefuls are seeing red over failure to combat ‘Salmond factor’

... The [Labour] candidates say that the SNP theme of urging voters to use their regional vote to back Alex Salmond for First Minister is working well, even in some of Labour’s heartland areas and could prove crucial to the outcome of the election on May 5.

... One prominent Labour candidate told The Times: “We have simply not got to grips with the Salmond factor in this election. Some people in our campaign believe that if they hate Alex Salmond, everyone else should hate him ... too many people in the party are at the stage of 2007. They have never got over losing to the SNP four years ago.”

... Another candidate said: “We keep being told we have a regional list strategy. Can someone please tell me what it is? It’s woeful and they cannot say they weren’t told about the dangers of letting the SNP damage us on the regional list. The problem seems to be that they spent a lot of time listening to us but they weren’t actually hearing anything.”

... One said: “Surely it was obvious that when we said, however grudgingly, we would match the Nats on a two-year freeze that Salmond would simply trump us and go for a five-year freeze.”

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/scotland/article2991360.ece

Salmond goes FAV as Next FM

2011-04-18T13:35:00.003+01:00

Stan James have now put up their 'Next First Minister' market again, and for the first time Alex Salmond is odds-on FAV:

Stan James - Next First Minister

Alex Salmond 8/11 (shortened from 5/6)
Iain Gray Evens (lengthened from 5/6)
Annabel Goldie 66/1 (n/c)
Tavish Scott 100/1 (n/c)

UPDATE

The Karen Whitefield (Labour) price is lengthening again in the key Lab/SNP marginal Airdrie & Shotts (the SNP only require a 1.4% swing to take the re-drawn seat). Current best prices:

Karen Whitefield (Lab) 4/11 (PP)
Alex Neil 5/2 (VC)
Robert Crozier (Con) 100/1 (PP, VC)
John Love (LD) 150/1 (PP, VC)

UPDATE 2

LAB price also lengthening in Stirling, another key Lab/SNP marginal (on the new boundaries, the SNP need 0.7% swing to gain the seat).

Iain Gray is "difficult to promote on the doorsteps"

2011-04-18T07:09:00.000+01:00

Former John Smith House communications director Lorraine Davidson in today's Times. She probably has the best Scottish Labour contacts in journalism:

... Several experienced Labour figures called on the leadership to raise its game as the campaign entered its final weeks. “We don’t need a miracle — a message would do,” said one. “The raw data shows that our vote is there but we need to give our voters a reason to come out with either a strong policy initiative or a positive leadership message. At the moment both are lacking.”

... A Holyrood candidate called on the party to run more local campaigns amid concerns that Iain Gray, the leader, is difficult to promote on the doorsteps. “Instead of giving us leaflets featuring Iain Gray, we would be better promoting the local candidates who are more popular in their areas than he is,” the candidate said.

... Mr Gray’s campaign team said that he was receiving a positive reception on the doorsteps and believed they could still win with an “under the radar” approach.

... Mr Gray was dealt a further setback after it emerged that Gordon Brown intends to play a low-key role in the campaign.

The former Prime Minister remains a strong asset for the party in Scotland. However, it is understood that he has expressed a desire to limit any involvement in the campaign to the Fife area.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/uk/scotland/article2990038.ece

Independence

Buckingham Palace asks Downing Street to seek expert advice

SLAB leader race - Macintosh goes solo FAV

Why the Union wil fail

SLAB leader race - Macintosh shortens

SLAB leader race - Macintosh lengthens

Removal of Trident is a "red line issue"

The 'No' campaign will not be led from London or by the Tories

Money keeps going on LAB in Inverclyde

SNP GAIN from Lib Dems in key Aberdeen by-election

Money going on LAB in Inverclyde?

Baillie goes odds-on at Paddy Power

Wow!

2nd Renfrewshire Lib Dem councillor defects to SNP

LAB HOLD shortens in Inverclyde

So, will it be Salmond vs Baillie/Fraser/Rennie ?

On to the next battle: council elections 2012

Labour civil war - Part MMMDCLXXXII

Labour odds-on FAV to Hold Inverclyde

Murdo Fraser is early FAV

Tom Harris MP will only vote in the members' section

Jim Murphy leads the charge of the lightweight brigade

Labour's incessant back-biting continues unabated

Elaine Murray enters the race

2 NEW MARKETS

The ConDems are revolting

Latest Westminster VI sub-sample

NEW MARKET: Year Of Independence Referendum

Betting update - Next Presiding Officer

Rest in peace David

The ugly face of Unionism

Latest Westminster VI sub-sample

Is it between Marwick and Grahame?

NEW MARKET: Next Presiding Officer

Thank you

Does the SNP landslide also help English and Welsh self-determination?

Betting update - Year of Independence and Labour Leadership

The PM's first major mistake

"Every seat that Labour’s Ed Miliband and Ed Balls visited during the campaign was won by the nationalists"

NEW MARKET: Next Scottish Lib Dem Leader

NEW MARKETS & ARB ALERT: Scottish independence referendum

NEW MARKET: Independence Referendum Result

I'm blogging at UK Polling Report

Constituency declarations begin at 2 am

Ladbrokes publish prices - Next Scottish Labour Party Leader

Labour infighting begins early

FINAL POLL: YouGov say SNP only 3 points ahead

NEW MARKET: Next Scottish Labour Party Leader

SNP to win Edinburgh Western from 3rd place?

Lib Dems in SIXTH PLACE on Lothian list

Paddy Power pays out on SNP Most Seats and Next FM Salmond

Have Labour lost their "feel" for the Scottish nation?

Jeepers creepers!

Clegg's stupid decision

Enter former FM McLeish and former PM Broon

NEW MARKET: Conservatives versus Liberal Democrats

FM Salmond tightens to 1/6 with Stan James

NEW MARKET: Leaders Debate Cliche Betting

Shetland: Tavish Scott price lengthens yet again

How can Labour be 5/1 when they are only 2 points behind the SNP?

Shetland: Tavish Scott now out to 1/3

"On the ground things are possibly even worse for Tavish Scott than his betting odds suggest"

“What about the £100 we’ve been promised for coming here to talk to you?”

NEW MARKET: Year of Scottish independence?

SHETLAND SHOCKER?

Will Scotland to be independent country by 2018?

There is a God

Could Tavish Scott really lose Shetland?

Greetin-faced bairns

New market: how many Green MSPs?

Gray price lengthening in East Lothian

Is Labour set to lose all its constituency seats in Lothian?

Ten days to save the Union

Iain Gray loses the plot

Who is going to win the 73 FPTP seats? *** UPDATE ***

The wrong question

Labour MPs "frozen out" by party’s national HQ in Glasgow

POLL ALERT: new Ipsos MORI leader data

William Hill launch a seat price: East Lothian

Is a North East Fife shock possible?

Who is going to win the 73 FPTP seats? * UPDATE *